Sounds like 1280 broke it, so I’ll talk about it a little more now… Bernard had played ALL YEAR with a lingering injury that only briefly got better. He had a planned procedure done after the USC game that I’ve heard went really well, meaning the timeline was sped up and tonight was initially a possibility, so he travelled with the team.

You can sweat over it for one game, but expect an even better Bernard, possibly starting next week.

The Runnin’ Utes will hope to surprise the Pac-12 this year, as they’re picked to finish 10th in the preseason conference poll:

https://utah.rivals.com/news/runnin-utes-selected-to-finish-10th-in-preseason-pac-12-media-poll

Hey folks,

I don't think I'm going to manage to crank a video out before the game, but I have run the numbers so I wanted to share them with you. UCLA has lost a ton of ground, with USC, Oregon, and Utah picking up the pieces.

For some reason USC is just not coming out ahead very often despite a very soft end of year schedule. My instinct is that this is a pretty big miss for the model. I have a rule not to meddle with my software mid season, but it's definitely something I'm going to look at once I'm done with it this year.

My buddy Ryan young has the huge task of covering several Pac-12 websites, so I caught up with his Wazzu staff writer, Kuria Pounds, for some insight into the Cougars…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/opponent-q-a-washington-state-2

It’s time for year two of the Craig Smith era. Marco Anthony and Branden Carlson will be representing the Utes.

Early on, let’s hear everyone’s expectations of this year’s team…

Here’s Dustin’s in-depth breakdown of Wazzu…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/inside-the-numbers-washington-state-1

Just because the football needs to focus on one game at a time, doesn’t mean Joseph has to… Especially with the mess of not having divisions in 2022…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/statistically-speaking-utah-at-washington-state-1

Here’s Sean’s Washington State preview…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/opponent-preview-washington-state-6

The Pac-12 tiebreaker could provide chaos. Three teams in front of Utah in the Top 15 lose. BYU quit on Kalani.

Crazy weekend.

It was a short press conference this week…

-Whittingham wants more balance on offense. They need to run the ball more effectively.

-No wholesale changes are coming defensively. Whittingham was happy with their USC performance, but wants his guys to get locked in faster.

-Whittingham doesn’t change his approach to the season now that there are no divisions.

-Playing Thursday after a BYE is the most ideal situation in Whittingham’s mind. When it’s two full weeks it’s easier to get stale.

-Cam Ward is very similar to Caleb Williams. Big arm and elusive. He does a really good job getting himself out of jams.

-Whittingham doesn’t have any specific reason on why Pullman is a difficult place to play.

Some lines for those who are interested. First, the Pac-12:

#14 Utah -7 @ WSU. Total is about 55, so Vegas is expecting roughly 31-24 Utah. I think that's low. If I were betting it, I'd take the over, particularly with Utah's running back situation.
#8 Oregon -17.5 @ Cal. Total is 58, so Vegas is expecting 38-20 for Oregon. This line has moved in Oregon's favor by about 4 points, so all the money's on Oregon to win and cover.
#10 USC -15.5 @ Arizona. Total is 77, so Vegas is expecting roughly 45-32 for USC. This line has moved a little bit in USC's favor, but that total's super high, so they're expecting a shootout.
ASU -13.5 @ Colorado. Total is 46.5, so Vegas is expecting a defensive battle ending about 30-17 for ASU. This line has moved a couple of points in ASU's favor.
Stanford +16.5 @ #12 UCLA. Total is 64, so Vegas is expecting UCLA to win about 40-24. Line hasn't moved much yet.

Four of the five home teams are dogs this week, so expect some surprise covers, as double-digit home dogs often cover. Honestly, a surprise upset could absolutely happen this week. Utah @WSU and USC @ Arizona are both possible, as both of those stadiums have a reputation for being the site of upsets.

Now the rest of the top 15 or so:
UF +22.5 @ #1 UGA. That's a big line, and betters agree, as it's moved a little bit towards Florida. Total is 56.5, so Vegas's expected score is roughly 40-17 UGA.
#2 OSU -15.5 @ #13 PSU. That's another pretty big line, on the road, but Penn State just got handled by Michigan. Total is 61, so Vegas expects a final of about 38-23 for OSU.
#19 Kentucky +12.5 @ #3 Tennessee. Total on this one is 63, so expected final is 38-25 for Tennessee.
MSU +22.5 @ #4 Michigan. This one has moved a ton in Michigan's favor, opening at 14.5, and the total has jumped to 54.5, so Vegas expects a final of roughly 38-16 for Michigan.
#7 TCU -7.5 @ WVU. Vegas expects TCU to struggle a little bit in Morgantown, but not too much. Total is up to 69, so they're expecting a final of 38-31 in TCU's favor.
#9 OK ST +2 @ #22 Kansas State. Yes, Vegas has KSU favored slightly at home over #9 OK ST. The total is 56, so they're expecting 29-27 KSU.
#10 Wake Forest -3.5 @ Louisville. This line has moved hard in Louisville's favor, opening at 6.5. The total is about 64, so Vegas expects 34-30 Wake.
#15 Ole Miss -2 @ ATM. This mine has moved a little in ATM's favor, opening at 3.5. Total is 55, so expected finish is about 29-27 for Ole Miss.

A couple of teams ahead of Utah on upset watch, including TCU, OK ST (who is the underdog), and Wake, plus PSU facing OSU. Any blowouts in any of those games would possibly put those teams below Utah, although 7 is a long way to fall for TCU.

Local teams lines are as follows:

ECU +3.5 @ BYU. BYU is favored by 3.5 over ECU with a total of about 62, meaning they expect the final to be 33-29 BYU. Line has moved about a point in ECU's favor, so bettors are cautious about BYU right now, even with a small line at home.
USU is on a bye.

Utes fans have to feel good about Zipperer after his successful visit for the Oregon State game. His interview on Rivals:

BYU fans are upset about their defensive coaching staff and are looking around for a new DC, and they've zeroed in on a couple of names. One of them is Derrick Odum, and I just wanted to praise the job he's doing as a Ute player and former Ute coach. He's currently the AHC and DC at SJSU, and he's been in that job for 6 years. His defense is currently ranked as follows:

4th in scoring defense (14.5 ppg)
8th in red zone defense (.688 scores per opponent RZ appearance)
9th in passing defense (169.3 ypg)
13th in total defense (295.2 ypg)
28th in pass efficiency defense (119.45)
43rd in rushing defense (125.8 ypg)
44th in 3rd down defense (.351)
11 turnovers in 6 games

He's also got a handful of great players per PFF, including the following
DE Viliami Fehoko (82.5 on 264 snaps)
DE Cade Hall (75.2 on 269 snaps)
CB Nehemiah Shelton (74.7 on 341 snaps)
CB Kenyon Reed (70.0 on 354 snaps)

Halie answers the burning questions from the USC game and looks ahead with key questions for the Wazzu game.

https://utah.rivals.com/news/burning-questions-utes-head-into-week-8

Halie caught up with 2023 OT Caleb Lomu, after he unofficially visited during the USC game…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/lomu-talks-amazing-utah-unofficial-visit

Didn't have the heart to do this last week, but here's this week's much more positive rendition. We're down to three serious contenders for the title game, with Utah, UCLA, and Oregon still in the mix and USC looking on and hoping for a lucky break. Interestingly, I ran a couple models looking forward and there's very little rooting interest for Utah fans in the Oregon-UCLA game, with Utah's odds of making the title game barely budging either way.

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Week to week numbers:

News and rumors from the recruiting trail:

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There’s news starting to leak about Tavion’s place on the team going forward. Please be mindful in any comments that he’s a young adult and we all made mistakes as young adults, just some more than others. The fact that some of this stuff hasn’t sunk in with him, just means that there should be genuine care and concern for Tavion, the person. I’ve been told that he says the right things about wanting to change, and knows his actions and attitude have been wrong, but for some reason the actions eventually lead back to his typical habits.

Have we seen the last of him? I can’t fully say that that will be the case because it’s been viewed as a very delicate situation.

I’ve been looking into the situation, but I won’t be surprised if Kyle is doing everything he can to keep a tight lid on this.

Updates on two locals here, one bring Smith Snowden, who I’ll have his interview with me transcribed soon.

https://n.rivals.com/news/recruiting-rumor-mill-power-programs-hosting-key-targets

Brewer gets another bite at the apple today vs The Zoo.

Interesting betting lines this week:

First, the Pac-12:
#9 UCLA +6.5 @ #10 Oregon. This opened at 4 and shot up. Bettors are not confident in UCLA on the road.
CU +23.5 @ OSU. This has been pretty consistent, but yeah, nobody's got the Buffs on the road in Corvalis.
UW -7.5 @ Cal. This one opened at 9.5, so most of the money has been on Cal to cover.
ASU +2.5 @ Stanford. This one's basically just home field, and the money's been a little bit more on ASU, since it opened at 3.

Utah, Arizona, WSU and USC are all on a bye this week.

Top 25 lines of note:

Iowa +30 @ #2 OSU. This actually opened at 21, so all the money's been on OSU.
UT Martin +38 @ #3 Tennessee. These lines are hard to find, because Tennessee can basically set the score.
#14 Syracuse +14.5 @ #5 Clemson. Syracuse getting blown out by Clemson would help Utah move up a spot. Clemson losing won't drop them 10 spots.
#24 MSU +21 @ #6 Alabama. This line hasn't moved much, seems about right. MSU upsetting Bama would probably move them past Utah.
#7 Ole Miss +2 @ LSU. This is interesting. Vegas thinks LSU should be favored, despite how they've looked, over top 10 Ole Miss. LSU is a talented team, if they blow out Ole Miss that could drop Ole Miss below Utah, although that's pretty far to go.
#17 KSU +4 @ #8 TCU. KSU probably jumps Utah if they upset TCU, TCU probably doesn't fall 7 spots if they lose, unless they get blown out.
#20 Texas -6 @ #8 OK ST. Yes, Texas is favored by 6 on the road against a team ranked 12 spots ahead of them. Texas winning might jump them past Utah, but also could drop OK ST below Utah, so this one's probably a wash. Probably best if OK ST wins, but honestly, the remaining Big 12 fans are annoying, so I'm rooting for Texas.
BC +20.5 @ #13 Wake Forest. Wake getting upset probably would cut them from the poll entirely, BC is bad.

If you're interested, the other local teams' lines are as follows:
BYU -7 @ Liberty. Liberty is 6-1 with a 1-point loss @Wake Forest, but the rest of their games have been against pretty terrible teams (14-25 combined record including FCS Gardner-Webb). If I were betting this game I'd bet on Liberty. I'm not sure they have enough to win, but a touchdown at home seems like a lot with how BYU's defense is playing. They're 124th in 3rd down defense (47.5%), 50th in passing yards allowed (215.3), 113th in rush defense (189.1 ypg and 4.53 ypc), 99th in scoring defense (30.29 ppg), 107th in team pass efficiency defense (145.9), and tied for 100th in turnovers created (7).
USU +4.5 @ Wyoming. This opened at 3.5, so the money's been favoring Wyoming a little bit. Both teams are bad (highlighted by USU losing 35-7 to Weber, but USU is on Front Range winning streak, beating AF and CSU the last two games. Wyoming beat New Mexico last week and has only 1 MWC loss right now, so they've still got a shot at the MWC championship game if they go on a little run here.

What I do know is that George Kliavkoff is working on a substantial deal with Amazon currently. This is likely to mean that the Pac-12 Networks will be sold off in it as well adding worthwhile teams and not just angling for all G5 teams.

That would be the goal. Will it happen? Who knows. I’ve definitely heard it would be a substantial Amazon deal, though.

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