I went 4-1 last week. Florida beat UCF by 11 (UCF was favored by 1.5) and the final was 24-13, so it came in under 61.5. Miami beat Cal by 1 point by cheating, but as they were favored by 12.5, Cal covered that one. WVU/OKST finished 38-14, so under 65.5. Only loss was UW/Michigan, as I thought Michigan plus 3 points was a pretty safe bet, even on the road. I was wrong, with the Huskies beating the Wolverines by 10, 27-17.
I'm now 17-8 on the year (68%).
This week's lines:
T#18 Oklahoma +14 @ #1 Texas. Total is 49, so expected score is 32-18.
#2 OSU -4 @ #3 Oregon. Total is 53, so expected final is 28-25.
#4 PSU -5 @ USC. Total is 48, so expected final is 27-22.
MSST +32 @ #5 UGA. Total is 53, so expected final is 43-10.
S. Car. +21.5 @ #7 Alabama. Total is 51, so expected score is 36-15.
Florida +15 @ #8 Tennessee. Total is 54, so expected score is 35-20.
#9 Ole Miss -3 @ #13 LSU. Total is 64, so expected final is 34-31.
#10 Clemson -20 @ Wake Forest. Total is 60.5, so expected score is 40-20.
T#11 ISU -3 @ WVU. Total is 51, so expected final is 27-24.
Stanford +22.5 @ T#11 ND. Total is 45, so expected final is 34-12.
Arizona +4.5 @ #14 BYU. Total is 50, so expected score is 27-23.
#16 Utah -6 @ ASU. Total 45, so expected score is 26-20.
#17 Boise -21 @ Hawaii. Total is 61.5, so expected score is 41-20.
T#18 KSST -4 @ Colorado. Total is 56.5, so expected final is 30-26.
Cincy +3 @ UCF. Total is 59, so expected final is 31-28.
The Cincy/UCF game is the only Big 12 game this week without a top 20 team, as Baylor, Houston, Kansas, OKST, TCU, and TTech all have byes (none of whom are ranked). I don't really see any lines that jump out except that game, as I'll take UCF -2.5. They're better than they've looked the last two weeks, and I expect them to bounce back at some point. I thought about ISU in Morgantown, Wake Forest at home, or Arizona in Provo in the afternoon, but ISU hasn't played much competition since beating Iowa by a single point, Wake was blown out at home by 40 against Ole Miss, and I'm not recommending any more BYU games. I thought about the over 52.5 in Oregon/OSU because that's a middling total and these teams both "feel" like offense teams, but OSU is #1 in scoring defense and Oregon is #21. Both are good on offense (#4 and #32), but their defenses are better.
Here's this week's recommendations:
UCF -3 against Cincy.
Over 56.5 in KSU/Colorado. KSU gave up 27 to Tulane, 38 to BYU, and 20 to OKST. Colorado can hit 30 at home.
Over 49 in OU/Texas. Texas won't call off the dogs if they're up big, and while Oklahoma has decent defense, I don't think they're good enough to hold Texas under 30.
Under 48.5 in PSU/USC. I know, I know. USC and the under? But USC and Penn St are both better on defense (#29 and #7, respectively) than they are on offense (#33 for Penn St and #58 for USC). Plus Penn St having to go to LA I expect they'll run better than they pass, particularly as the game starts at 9:30 Eastern Time.
Under 61.5 in Boise/Hawaii. Boise's going to go off, but they do that on the ground and Hawaii can't score (#98 averaging 24 ppg but only averaging 17 ppg against FBS opponents). I'm going to be nervous about this one, but I think this is the right call.
I'm now 17-8 on the year (68%).
This week's lines:
T#18 Oklahoma +14 @ #1 Texas. Total is 49, so expected score is 32-18.
#2 OSU -4 @ #3 Oregon. Total is 53, so expected final is 28-25.
#4 PSU -5 @ USC. Total is 48, so expected final is 27-22.
MSST +32 @ #5 UGA. Total is 53, so expected final is 43-10.
S. Car. +21.5 @ #7 Alabama. Total is 51, so expected score is 36-15.
Florida +15 @ #8 Tennessee. Total is 54, so expected score is 35-20.
#9 Ole Miss -3 @ #13 LSU. Total is 64, so expected final is 34-31.
#10 Clemson -20 @ Wake Forest. Total is 60.5, so expected score is 40-20.
T#11 ISU -3 @ WVU. Total is 51, so expected final is 27-24.
Stanford +22.5 @ T#11 ND. Total is 45, so expected final is 34-12.
Arizona +4.5 @ #14 BYU. Total is 50, so expected score is 27-23.
#16 Utah -6 @ ASU. Total 45, so expected score is 26-20.
#17 Boise -21 @ Hawaii. Total is 61.5, so expected score is 41-20.
T#18 KSST -4 @ Colorado. Total is 56.5, so expected final is 30-26.
Cincy +3 @ UCF. Total is 59, so expected final is 31-28.
The Cincy/UCF game is the only Big 12 game this week without a top 20 team, as Baylor, Houston, Kansas, OKST, TCU, and TTech all have byes (none of whom are ranked). I don't really see any lines that jump out except that game, as I'll take UCF -2.5. They're better than they've looked the last two weeks, and I expect them to bounce back at some point. I thought about ISU in Morgantown, Wake Forest at home, or Arizona in Provo in the afternoon, but ISU hasn't played much competition since beating Iowa by a single point, Wake was blown out at home by 40 against Ole Miss, and I'm not recommending any more BYU games. I thought about the over 52.5 in Oregon/OSU because that's a middling total and these teams both "feel" like offense teams, but OSU is #1 in scoring defense and Oregon is #21. Both are good on offense (#4 and #32), but their defenses are better.
Here's this week's recommendations:
UCF -3 against Cincy.
Over 56.5 in KSU/Colorado. KSU gave up 27 to Tulane, 38 to BYU, and 20 to OKST. Colorado can hit 30 at home.
Over 49 in OU/Texas. Texas won't call off the dogs if they're up big, and while Oklahoma has decent defense, I don't think they're good enough to hold Texas under 30.
Under 48.5 in PSU/USC. I know, I know. USC and the under? But USC and Penn St are both better on defense (#29 and #7, respectively) than they are on offense (#33 for Penn St and #58 for USC). Plus Penn St having to go to LA I expect they'll run better than they pass, particularly as the game starts at 9:30 Eastern Time.
Under 61.5 in Boise/Hawaii. Boise's going to go off, but they do that on the ground and Hawaii can't score (#98 averaging 24 ppg but only averaging 17 ppg against FBS opponents). I'm going to be nervous about this one, but I think this is the right call.
