Troy Williams and the Utah receivers vs. the SJSU secondary:
SJSU had one of the better secondaries in the country last year, finishing second in passing yards allowed (157.8 ypg) and 39th in team passing efficiency defense. They weren't great at intercepting passes, however, as they only had 9 on the year. This secondary took a hit this offseason, as three of the four starting DBs left the team, including Cleveland Wallace, who declared early for the draft after leading the team in interceptions with 3. The one returning player is safety Maurice McKnight, who finished second on the team in total tackles and snagged one interception. SJSU's secondary has already taken a step back, as they are giving up about 235 yards through the air through their first two games.
Utah has the athleticism and height advantage in their outside receivers, with Tyrone Smith, Raelon Singleton and Tim Patrick all having a good 4-5 inches over the starting CBs. On the inside, CBB (if he plays) and Fulks have a good speed and athleticism advantage over the SJSU DBs and should be able to get open deep and behind the LBs. The TEs should be able to contribute significantly as they match up well against the safeties and LBs. None of the safeties are all that big, and at LB, although Frank Ginda is athletic and a solid tackler, the Utah TEs appear to be much more athletic than the SJSU LBs.
Edge: Utah
Utah O-line and RBs vs. the SJSU front 7
SJSU will have one of the more experienced front 7s in the MWC this year, as they return all of their starting LBs from last year and three of the four DL starters. This is good news for the Utes, however, because their run defense isn't all that talented. They finished 102nd in the country in 2015 and allowed 200.8 yards rushing per game. This trend is continuing so far in 2016, as they gave up over 300 yards on the ground to Tulsa and over 200 yards rushing to Portland State. The defense also struggled to generate a pass rush in 2015, they finished 114th in the nation with only 17 sacks on the year.
The defensive line is woefully undersized, with the average weight of the returning starters from last year being about 265. They do have a very talented linebacker in Frank Ginda, who as a freshman had 80 tackles and 4.5 TFLs. Ginda is leading the team in tackles so far this season with 21 total stops through two games, along with 2 sacks, 1 other tackle for loss, and a fumble recovery. However, Utah's offensive line should manhandle these guys and run at will. Zack Moss, who was a nice revelation last week, matches up extremely well against the SJSU LBs, who are going to have a hard time bringing him down if they can't meet him in the gaps, and Troy McCormick has the speed to leave all of these guys, including the secondary, in the dust if he breaks free. I hope Joe Williams gets another shot because this is exactly the matchup he needs to be able to have a big game and bounce back. I expect the run game to have a big day and the QB should have all sorts of time to throw.
Edge: Utah
Kenny Potter and the SJSU receivers vs the Utah secondary:
SJSU's most notable returning player is Kenny Potter, who is a decent dual threat QB that had a pretty good season in 2015. Potter threw for 1984 yards, 15 TDs, and 7 INTs, and ran for another 415 yards and 7 TDs. He has the capability to break long runs, so the key to stopping SJSU's offense will be making sure he doesn't get too many yards on the ground. We may miss Kylie Fitts if he ends up not being able to go, and Pita will really need to step up his run contain game to ensure that Potter doesn't get loose too often.
SJSU does return some of its better receivers from 2015, including receiving leader TE Billy Freeman, WR Tim Crawley, and WR Tre Hartley. Freeman and Hartley are both taller guys, but Crawley is small and speedy, at only 5'7" 169. He will present the biggest challenge to cover, but I think Justin Thomas and Boobie Hobbs should be up to the challenge. Hatfield (?), Porter and Allen will be tasked with covering the bigger outside receivers, and Chase Hansen will probably spend a lot of time covering Freeman from his safety position. Utah has a definite athleticism advantage here and I think SJSU will probably have a difficult time passing with any sort of efficiency.
Edge: Utah
SJSU O-line and RBs vs the Utah front 7:
Arguably SJSU's biggest loss from last year was RB Tyler Ervin, who ran for 1601 yards, 13 TDs, and caught 45 passes for 334 yards and 2 more TDs. He was also their top punt and kick returner and ran a punt back for a TD. The running back situation is a committee approach this year, and the leading rusher so far is Deontae Cooper, who has 169 yards through the first two games. The good news for the Spartans is that their entire starting O line returns. The bad news is that the line needs a lot of improvement, as they finished 109th nationally in sacks allowed in 2015, although they were decent in rushing offense, ranking 47th. So far in 2016, SJSU is averaging about 260 yards rushing per game, although it should be noted that stat is extremely misleading. They only managed 53 yards rushing against Tulsa, but racked up 400+ yards rushing against FCS Portland State last week.
Utah's D-line should be able to get a lot of pressure on the QB and the LBs should be able to keep Tucker bottled up, although they'll have to stay alert since SJSU likes to run the ball with their QB and give their WRs a fair amount of carries too. Overall, I think SJSU is going to struggle mightily to get anything going on the ground and the QB is going to be under relentless pressure nearly every snap.
Edge: Utah
Special Teams
So far Utah has looked solid in the kicking aspect of special teams, but the return game needs some improvement. None of the kick returners looked all that good against BYU, and Boobie Hobbs needs to learn when to call a fair catch on punt returns. Andy Phillips looked solid, going 2 for 2 on his field goal attempts vs BYU, and Mitch Wishnowsky had another incredible game, averaging 50+ yards on his punts, including one 65 yarder.
SJSU's punter is decent, having punted 12 times and dropping six of them inside the opponent's 20. He's averaging 43.6 yards on his punts. Their kicker is 2 for 2 on field goal attempts, both of which have come on tries of less than 40 yards. They have only attempted one punt return, which resulted in a 6 yard loss, but their kick returners have been solid, with their top returner averaging 26.6 yards per return on 5 attempts.
Until Utah can prove that their return game is improved, I have to call this one a wash.
Edge: Even
Coaching: Kyle Whittingham vs. Ron Caragher
Caragher is in his fourth year as SJSU's head coach. He has compiled a 16-23 record so far and has yet to have a winning season, as his best record was 6-6 in his first year. Before SJSU, he coached for San Diego, compiling an impressive record of 44-22 and winning a share of the Pioneer League conference championship three times in 6 years.
Whittingham earned his 97th win as a head coach against BYU on Saturday, bringing his all time record to 97-46. Of his 11 seasons as a head coach, 9 have finished in winning records, and 5 have been 9+ win seasons.
Whittingham has the clear advantage here.
Edge: Utah
This should be Utah's coming out party on offense and I expect the defense to hold SJSU to less than 17 points so long as there isn't a plethora of turnovers again. My prediction for the final score is 45-10.
SJSU had one of the better secondaries in the country last year, finishing second in passing yards allowed (157.8 ypg) and 39th in team passing efficiency defense. They weren't great at intercepting passes, however, as they only had 9 on the year. This secondary took a hit this offseason, as three of the four starting DBs left the team, including Cleveland Wallace, who declared early for the draft after leading the team in interceptions with 3. The one returning player is safety Maurice McKnight, who finished second on the team in total tackles and snagged one interception. SJSU's secondary has already taken a step back, as they are giving up about 235 yards through the air through their first two games.
Utah has the athleticism and height advantage in their outside receivers, with Tyrone Smith, Raelon Singleton and Tim Patrick all having a good 4-5 inches over the starting CBs. On the inside, CBB (if he plays) and Fulks have a good speed and athleticism advantage over the SJSU DBs and should be able to get open deep and behind the LBs. The TEs should be able to contribute significantly as they match up well against the safeties and LBs. None of the safeties are all that big, and at LB, although Frank Ginda is athletic and a solid tackler, the Utah TEs appear to be much more athletic than the SJSU LBs.
Edge: Utah
Utah O-line and RBs vs. the SJSU front 7
SJSU will have one of the more experienced front 7s in the MWC this year, as they return all of their starting LBs from last year and three of the four DL starters. This is good news for the Utes, however, because their run defense isn't all that talented. They finished 102nd in the country in 2015 and allowed 200.8 yards rushing per game. This trend is continuing so far in 2016, as they gave up over 300 yards on the ground to Tulsa and over 200 yards rushing to Portland State. The defense also struggled to generate a pass rush in 2015, they finished 114th in the nation with only 17 sacks on the year.
The defensive line is woefully undersized, with the average weight of the returning starters from last year being about 265. They do have a very talented linebacker in Frank Ginda, who as a freshman had 80 tackles and 4.5 TFLs. Ginda is leading the team in tackles so far this season with 21 total stops through two games, along with 2 sacks, 1 other tackle for loss, and a fumble recovery. However, Utah's offensive line should manhandle these guys and run at will. Zack Moss, who was a nice revelation last week, matches up extremely well against the SJSU LBs, who are going to have a hard time bringing him down if they can't meet him in the gaps, and Troy McCormick has the speed to leave all of these guys, including the secondary, in the dust if he breaks free. I hope Joe Williams gets another shot because this is exactly the matchup he needs to be able to have a big game and bounce back. I expect the run game to have a big day and the QB should have all sorts of time to throw.
Edge: Utah
Kenny Potter and the SJSU receivers vs the Utah secondary:
SJSU's most notable returning player is Kenny Potter, who is a decent dual threat QB that had a pretty good season in 2015. Potter threw for 1984 yards, 15 TDs, and 7 INTs, and ran for another 415 yards and 7 TDs. He has the capability to break long runs, so the key to stopping SJSU's offense will be making sure he doesn't get too many yards on the ground. We may miss Kylie Fitts if he ends up not being able to go, and Pita will really need to step up his run contain game to ensure that Potter doesn't get loose too often.
SJSU does return some of its better receivers from 2015, including receiving leader TE Billy Freeman, WR Tim Crawley, and WR Tre Hartley. Freeman and Hartley are both taller guys, but Crawley is small and speedy, at only 5'7" 169. He will present the biggest challenge to cover, but I think Justin Thomas and Boobie Hobbs should be up to the challenge. Hatfield (?), Porter and Allen will be tasked with covering the bigger outside receivers, and Chase Hansen will probably spend a lot of time covering Freeman from his safety position. Utah has a definite athleticism advantage here and I think SJSU will probably have a difficult time passing with any sort of efficiency.
Edge: Utah
SJSU O-line and RBs vs the Utah front 7:
Arguably SJSU's biggest loss from last year was RB Tyler Ervin, who ran for 1601 yards, 13 TDs, and caught 45 passes for 334 yards and 2 more TDs. He was also their top punt and kick returner and ran a punt back for a TD. The running back situation is a committee approach this year, and the leading rusher so far is Deontae Cooper, who has 169 yards through the first two games. The good news for the Spartans is that their entire starting O line returns. The bad news is that the line needs a lot of improvement, as they finished 109th nationally in sacks allowed in 2015, although they were decent in rushing offense, ranking 47th. So far in 2016, SJSU is averaging about 260 yards rushing per game, although it should be noted that stat is extremely misleading. They only managed 53 yards rushing against Tulsa, but racked up 400+ yards rushing against FCS Portland State last week.
Utah's D-line should be able to get a lot of pressure on the QB and the LBs should be able to keep Tucker bottled up, although they'll have to stay alert since SJSU likes to run the ball with their QB and give their WRs a fair amount of carries too. Overall, I think SJSU is going to struggle mightily to get anything going on the ground and the QB is going to be under relentless pressure nearly every snap.
Edge: Utah
Special Teams
So far Utah has looked solid in the kicking aspect of special teams, but the return game needs some improvement. None of the kick returners looked all that good against BYU, and Boobie Hobbs needs to learn when to call a fair catch on punt returns. Andy Phillips looked solid, going 2 for 2 on his field goal attempts vs BYU, and Mitch Wishnowsky had another incredible game, averaging 50+ yards on his punts, including one 65 yarder.
SJSU's punter is decent, having punted 12 times and dropping six of them inside the opponent's 20. He's averaging 43.6 yards on his punts. Their kicker is 2 for 2 on field goal attempts, both of which have come on tries of less than 40 yards. They have only attempted one punt return, which resulted in a 6 yard loss, but their kick returners have been solid, with their top returner averaging 26.6 yards per return on 5 attempts.
Until Utah can prove that their return game is improved, I have to call this one a wash.
Edge: Even
Coaching: Kyle Whittingham vs. Ron Caragher
Caragher is in his fourth year as SJSU's head coach. He has compiled a 16-23 record so far and has yet to have a winning season, as his best record was 6-6 in his first year. Before SJSU, he coached for San Diego, compiling an impressive record of 44-22 and winning a share of the Pioneer League conference championship three times in 6 years.
Whittingham earned his 97th win as a head coach against BYU on Saturday, bringing his all time record to 97-46. Of his 11 seasons as a head coach, 9 have finished in winning records, and 5 have been 9+ win seasons.
Whittingham has the clear advantage here.
Edge: Utah
This should be Utah's coming out party on offense and I expect the defense to hold SJSU to less than 17 points so long as there isn't a plethora of turnovers again. My prediction for the final score is 45-10.
