It's a little early, but the first bowl game is 11 days away, so if you want to start betting, lines are already up for some of them (some won't be up until early next week). All rankings are the AP Poll, as the CFP committee has proven completely worthless at ranking teams.
First, Utah.
Utah -7.5 @ Northwestern. Utah is the "road" team for the Vegas Bowl, but hopefully we wear reds, not whites. Total is about 41, so expected final is 24-17. Don't bet on your own team, but if you want to bet the Vegas Bowl, take the under. Two top-50 defenses and two sub-90 offenses are going to put points at a premium. FPI would have Utah 10.5 point favorites.
Next, the Pac-12.
#3 Texas -4.5 @ #2 UW. Washington gets shafted having to go to the Sugar Bowl instead of getting the Rose Bowl. I think part of the line bakes some of that in. Total is 64, so expected final is 34-30. I don't love this Washington team, they don't play defense, but I'm also not sure about Texas. The total is high, but both of these teams score and don't play much defense. I'd take the over. FPI would have Texas favored by about 6.
#18 Liberty +16 @ #8 Oregon. Total is 65, so expected final is 40-24. I'd take Oregon to cover. Liberty sucks and is evil, I think Oregon is going to be pissed and blow them out. FPI would have Oregon favored by 21.
#14 Arizona -4 @ #12 Oklahoma. The game is in the state of Texas, Oklahoma is ranked higher, but Arizona is favored by a field goal. I'd say take Arizona right now, although watch for people sitting out. Oklahoma is shaky, BYU almost beat them, and Arizona is solid. Total is 62, so expected final is 33-29. FPI would have Oklahoma favored by 11, so there might be some value on OU here.
#21 ORST +10.5 @ #15 Notre Dame. Yikes. Vegas isn't buying the Beavers without their head coach. I'd take Notre Dame, but 10 is a big number. Total only 46, so expected final is 33-23. FPI would have Notre Dame favored by only 6.5.
#16 Louisville -7.5 @ USC. USC hasn't played well, but Louisville also hasn't seen many offenses like USC's. If Williams was playing, I'd take USC to both cover and win, but he's sitting out, so we'll see if Riley can coach. I think USC covers, but who knows. FPI would have USC favored by 1.5, but without Williams who knows.
UCLA @ Boise. No line yet. I'll update when we get the line.
Cal @ Texas Tech. No line yet. I'll update when we get the line.
Now for the teams currently getting votes ahead of Utah. Utah's #28 right now, so I'll go up to 17. Liberty, Oregon State, and Louisville getting blown out would be good for Utah ending the year ranked.
#17 SMU -10.5 @ Boston College. SMU has looked pretty good this year, although they lost to a bad TCU team. Still, they're on a run of huge wins, I think they'll easily beat BC, although I probably wouldn't take them to cover 10. Total is 51, so expected final is 31-20. FPI would have SMU favored by like 18.
#19 NCSU +3.5 @ #29 KSU. KSU is right behind Utah in votes, so them winning probably jumps them over Utah. If KSU wins a nailbiter, Utah might stay ahead of them while NCSU falls out. Total is 47, so expected final is 25-22. FPI would have KSU favored by 12, so might be some value on KSU here.
#20 Iowa +7.5 @ #25 Tennessee. We want a blowout, so the loser falls below Utah. Total is only 36, so expected final is 22-14. FPI also has this line at about 8, so they agree with Vegas.
ATM -3.5 @ #22 OK ST. Total is 53, so expected final is 28-25. Again, ATM to win is good for us, as ATM is 7-5 so they won't be ranked with a win. FPI would have ATM favored by about 9.
VA Tech -7.5 @ #23 Tulane. Total is 46, so expected final is 27-19. I'm surprised 6-6 VA Tech is favored by more than a TD over a good Tulane team, but go Hokies. FPI would have VA Tech favored by 1, so Tulane might be the value pick here.
#24 JMU -3 @ Air Force. Total is 41, so expected final is 22-19. Air Force is hard to prepare for and JMU lost their head coach, so don't be surprised by AF taking this one. If I had to put money on it, AF would be my bet. FPI doesn't agree with me, they have JMU 6 points better than AF.
The Big 12:
Memphis +6.5 @ ISU. Total is 58, so expected final is 32-26. FPI agrees with Vegas here.
UNC +3.5 @ WVU. Total is 57, so expected final is 30-27. FPI likes UNC by 4 here, so might be some value on the Tarheels.
Kansas -12 @ UNLV. Total is 65, so expected final is 38-26. FPI roughly agrees with Vegas here, they'd favor Kansas by 10.
GA Tech +4.5 @ UCF. Total is 64, so expected final is 34-30. FPI would favor UCF by 6 here, so not too far off.
Also, the Aggies made a bowl game:
GA ST -2.5 @ USU. Total is 63, so expected final is 33-30. FPI would favor USU by 1, so might be some value on the Aggies here.
