An exciting week of games almost upended the map, but USC and Oregon wound up squeaking out victories and maintaining most of their territory.

Despite the W and the strong AP ranking, USC lost a considerable amount of territory- last week they were a title game entrant in 41% of seasons, this week just 31%. The combination of causes: USC did not play well against Oregon State, bailed out chiefly by four Beavers turnovers. This set them back in advanced metrics. Early projections have also favored USC because of what was seen as a soft conference schedule- the team misses both Oregon and Washington. Cal, Washington State, UCLA and Utah all took big steps forward this week, though, causing the Trojan's strength of schedule to tick up sharply. Finally, Washington looks like they are going to win a whole bunch of games, with a 51% chance of 7 or more conference wins, joining Oregon and Utah. That narrows USC's window of success considerably.

Lord of the PAC video:

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Week over week odds of making the conference title game:

A few threads below have indicated that Cam is a little off this year. High on some throws, low on some others. Maybe. BUT, I think we need to be honest and this in no way an dig on Cam. Last year he threw some very suspect passes that coulda, shoulda been picked off but were not (I distinctly remember some throughs that made me wince). He was a complete turn around from Baylor guy and therefore we were thrilled by his presence. This year he is now a known commodity and expectations are sky high.

Cam has a tendency to force balls (see Florida TD interception and Kincaid's great second TD catch against ASU - one worked, one didn't). Cam is a bit of a wildcard. He will make some awesome, clutch plays. He will also tempt trouble. It's OK - he is what he is. I think he is producing just fine.

Here’s Sean’s opponent preview on Oregon State:

https://utah.rivals.com/news/opponent-preview-oregon-state-3

There’s a social media plea out there by Coach Whit explaining the difference it makes to have the stadium full at kickoff.

“I’m telling you right now….it makes a huge difference and our players feed off that crowd”.

Home field advantage means something, unless it doesn’t. Go 20 minutes earlier and be in your seats. The top 15 team you cheer for deserves it.

A look at the game from a betting perspective:

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-Kuithe has been lost for the season. If he chooses, he can come back for one more year. He was such a big part of the offense, it’s a big blow. It’s a torn ACL and meniscus.

-Thomas Yassmin is a true TE. He just needs to be assignment sound. He started from ground-zero when he got to Utah with no football experience, only rugby.

-The front 7 performance against Florida looks like an aberration now. Tafuna, Vimahi, and Pepa will be the main rotation.

-Tavion can get back to the bulk of the carries once he improves both on and off the field. He definitely acknowledged disappointment with him off the field.

-With Ja’Quinden’s past RB experience, they’re intrigued with his potential once he gets more and more reps there.

-Mohamoud Diabate is expected back against Oregon State.

-They’re concerned about the long kickoff returns last week. They need to do a better job of rotating and staying in their lanes.

What do Joseph’s numbers say this week, especially with the loss of Brant Kuithe…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/statistically-speaking-utah-vs-oregon-state-2

In Kuithe's 3 full games, he had 28 targets or 9.3 per game. It will be interesting what Ludwig does with those 9 targets. Here is my .02 worth...

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RBs
Micah Bernard 2

TEs
Kincaid 1
Yassmin 2

WRs
Money Parks 2
Solomon Enis 1
Devaughn Vele 1

The last non-conference week is in the books and the stage is set for a thrilling race to the title game. ASU's chances of winning collapsed after an embarrassing loss at home that cost Herm his job, Washington is establishing itself as a contender, and Utah's odds of making the title game dwindled to less than 2/3; not so much because of any problems on the Utes' end but instead because the PAC 12 is loaded at the top.

I'm pretty excited to see how this week's games impact the map. Will Oregon swallow Washington State, or will the tiny scarlet and grey island in that sea of green grow? Will USC cross the strait and seize territory from Oregon State, or retreat and cede ground to both the Beavers and Utah? It's gonna be fun.

Oh, and to make it nice and easy for you, the odds of making it to the title game (arrows show movement from last week) are:



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Halie answers last week’s questions and looks ahead to the battle against Oregon State…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/burning-questions-utes-head-into-week-5

As always, NSFW...


Georgia:

See y’all later, gonna re-watch the Oregon game to bleach my eyes

Oklahoma:

Still time to pull out of that SEC thing??

Arkansas:

They could not have scripted this game better to describe life as an Arkansas fan.

Here’s the breakdown on what it means for Katoa committing to the Runnin’ Utes for the class of 2024…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/what-it-means-katoa-commits-to-the-runnin-utes

No huge changes this week as favorites largely held serve. Washington and UCLA are coming on strong. Utah is now slightly more likely to win 10 games than 9, new territory for them since the loss to Florida. Colorado's most likely result is now 0-12, and Arizona State is in free fall as projections struggle to keep up with just how badly they've been playing.

USC's rosy season numbers disguise increasing uncertainty in their bid for a trip to the title game; that'll be the focus of tomorrow's conference projection post.

Here’s how the Utes graded out with PFF for the Arizona State game…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/inside-the-numbers-utah-s-pff-grades-vs-asu

The Florida loss and how the Gators have done since, continues to hurt the Utes with minimal movement:

This is an interesting one. Katoa had a Utah football offer, early on as a freshman, but then he transferred to his current school, that only has basketball.

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Matthews will visit Utah for the USC and he had some really positive things to say:

https://n.rivals.com/news/wr-mikey-matthews-taking-visits-staying-patient

Former Utah baseball stand out CJ Cron passed the 100 RBI mark this weekend. This is the first time he has reached that level and he is having a terrific season with the Rockies.

-This year’s team has already spent a lot of time together which was intentional with 8 new guys.

-There’s a lot more physicality to this group and a lot quicker to the ball. He expects them to be a lot better rebounding team.

-This year’s team has more room to make mistakes and recover from them.

-Leaders have been: Anthony, Carlson, and Brenchlet. Gavin Baxter has been great even though he can’t play yet. Of the young guys, Lazar is really trying to be vocal as a leader.

-He talked about just focusing on being 1% better each day. He said he took a long trip recently that allowed him to watch all of their practices and the incremental improvement in each practice was really evident.

-They’re really excited to have Chris Burgess on the staff. He feels like that hire is already paying off.

-He has a really tight staff with camaraderie and chemistry. It’s okay to disagree and be respectful about it. He also talked about, as a staff, what it’s like to learn the league.

-They should have the versatility to play a lot of different ways.

-They’re always going to have their core, culture, and what they believe in. But, then you need to adjust to your personnel.

-He echoed what Carlson and Anthony said without being told what they said about the new guys. He said they’re all doing great things—and different new guys step up each day.

-They’re coming into the season with one open schedule. It’s not a philosophical thing.

-Boston Holt recently got cleared to play. Baxter is close to being cleared in about 3-4 weeks.

-Smith won’t say any one specific guy who did better improvement wise than any others. He did say the freshmen don’t look like freshmen. He won’t say it’s all roses though, either.

-Because of the transfer portal, it’s tough to really know which opponents are going to be good.

-Unlike Larry K, Smith is insistent on playin BYU every year.

-He thinks the fans will like the product. Smith likes it, says he doesn’t completely love it, but it’s great for where they’re currently at.

This was the pickup we were discussing last week. I really like Jonah’s film and with Utah’s development on the defensive line, he could grow into a force…

https://utah.rivals.com/news/what-it-means-utes-land-bishop-gorman-hs-de-lea-ea

-Both say there’s a lot of good things happening and that the team put in a lot of good work over the summer.

-Neither would pick a newcomer to watch out for. They both acknowledged that all of the guys do different things great in unique ways.

-Year two is great because they all know the culture now. (Anthony)

-Carlson and Chris Burgess go way back and it’s been great having him here and learning from him.

-The entire team just loves playing basketball and they’ve already done a lot of pickup games. (Anthony)

-According to Anthony, the physicality is what will set this team apart. He also said he’s been on an NCAA Tournament team every year but last year, and he said this team feels like it can reach that point. They’re a lot bigger, stronger and faster. He doesn’t believe they’ll get bullied more.

-Carlson was down to 205 at the end of last year because of his appendicitis attack. He’s put to 220 now.

-Anthony says he wants to get to the free throw line a lot more. In the offseason, he stayed in Utah and got a lot more shots up.

-Last year’s team seemed to focus on the future, while this year they focus on the day that they’re in.

Bishop Gorman DE

This sucks.

This sucks for Brant, this suck for the offense. This sucks for the fans.

Whittingham did say Kuithe can come back next season, but he’s already flirted with the NFL twice… Let’s dedicate an appreciation thread to one of Utah’s all-time great playmakers.

Here are the takeaways from Utah’s Pac-12 opener. Let’s hear everyone else’s takeaways, as well:

https://utah.rivals.com/news/takeaways-utah-at-arizona-state-1