The 3rd and Short (4 yards or less) playcalling has me fired up! It's unbelievably predictable. Stick with me on this... lots of numbers but it shows the lack of creativity by Ludwig:

Utah has had 29 plays of 3rd & 4 or less:

Rushes: 24/29 (83%)
RB Rushes: 24/24 (100%)
QB/WR/TE Rushes: 0/24 (0%)

Rush Middle: 18/24 (75%)
Rush Left: 3/24 (13%)
Rush Right: 3/24 (13%)

Rush middle 1st down: 7/18 (39%)
Rush left 1st down: 3/3 (100%)
Rush right 1st down: 2/3 (67%)

Bernard: 9 rushes, 5 1st downs
Mitchell: 11 rushes, 5 1st downs
Vincent/Stanley/Andrews: 4 rushes, 2 1st downs

1st three games rush middle 1st downs: 5/9 (56%)
Last two games rush middle 1st down: 2/9 (22%)

Mitchell: 9 straight runs up the middle. First 3 got 1st downs, last 6 failed.
Bernard: 5 of last 6 runs up the middle. 3/5 got 1st downs.
Last 3 games: 14/15 runs up the middle!!!!

Average yards gained on plays of 3rd & 4 or less:
Rush up the middle: 2.5 yards
Rush left: 3.3 yards
Rush right: 14.7 yards
Pass: 11.6 yards

Mitchell: 2.1 yards per carry
Bernard: 6 yards per carry
It's so predictable!!

If Mitchell is in, 100% rush middle or left, with 78% middle.
If Bernard is in, 89% rush middle or right, with 67% middle.

17% chance of pass
0% chance of screen pass
0% chance of QB/TE/WR run
0% chance of draw play

It's just too easy for opposing defensive coordinators.
They know EXACTLY what's coming.
They stack the box just a little to the right with Mitchell, and just a little to the left with Bernard, and go straight for the RB.
They don't even have to look at the QB/TE/WRs.

Where have the TE rushes gone? You can't tell me Kuithe, Ryan, or Suguturaga wouldn't get you a first down on 3rd and short.
Where have the WR rushes gone? Hand the ball off to the WR!! If they go in motion but you NEVER give them the ball, the motion is useless.
Where have the QB rushes gone? Again, the QB has to run it occasionally to keep the defense guessing. If Wilson can't do it, put in someone who can on 3rd and short! The shotgun QB draw worked great for Rising 2 years ago. Johnson and Barnes did great with it last season. Where is it this season?
Run Wildcat? Why not try running the wildcat? Kuithe has had success with this in the past.
More passing!? Only 5/29 3rd and short situations resulted in a pass. 3 got a first down. 2 were incomplete. It keeps defenses off balance, you can't just run it up the middle over and over! Some screens perhaps?
Run it left or right, just not the middle! 5/6 runs NOT up the middle have gone for a first down. So if you must continue to run it, why would you keep choosing middle??? At least run a sweep, a toss, a counter, ANYTHING other than power middle.

So I was 10-6 prior to this week. Again I pick a BYU game and again they screw me. No more! Still, went 3-1 on the week.

Last week's picks:
WIN. ISU -12 @ Houston. Final was 20-0 ISU.
WIN. OVER 63 in CU/UCF. Final was 48-21 CU.
WIN. OVER 47.5 in Louisville/ND. Final was 31-24 ND.
LOSE. UNDER 45.5 in BYU/Baylor. Final was 34-28 BYU.

So I'm now 13-7 on the year. Here's this week's lines:

Top 20:

#1 Bama -23 @ Vandy. Total is 55.
Iowa +20.5 @ #3 OSU. Total is 44.5.
#4 Tennessee -13.5 @ Arkansas. Total is 60.
Auburn +25.5 @ #5 UGA. Total is 52.5.
MSU +26.5 @ #6 Oregon. Total is 52.
UCLA +28.5 @ #7 Penn St. Total is 44.5.
#8 Miami -12.5 @ California. Total is 55.
#9 Mizzou +1.5 @ #25 ATM. Total is 48.5.
#10 Michigan +3 @ Washington. Total is 40.5.
#11 USC -8.5 @ Minnesota. Total is 51.5.
#12 Ole Miss -9 @ S. Carolina. Total is 53.
#15 Clemson -14.5 @ FSU. Total is 46.5.
Baylor +14 @ #16 ISU. Total is 46.

WVU +4.5 @ OKST. Total is 65.5.
Houston +15.5 @ TCU. Total is 49.5.
UCF -1.5 @ Florida. Total is 61.5.
KU +3.5 @ ASU. Total is 50.5.
TTech +6 @ Arizona. Total is 61.5.

Picks:

Florida +1.5 @ UCF. Florida has gotten beat a lot, but they're very talented and the game's in the Swamp. UCF looked like trash against CU.
Under 61.5 UCF/Florida. UCF only got 21 against a bad CU defense and they like to run. UF averages 27 a game and 45 of those are against a terrible MSST.
Cal -12.5 vs. Miami. I don't think Cal wins, but I think they can cover that at home.
Michigan +2.5 @ Washington. Washington is okay, but not good, and Michigan is good enough on defense to win this game by more than a FG.
Under 65.5 in WVU/OKST. I don't see both of them getting to 30

I substituted the old Bad Company tune chorus lyrics with venting loud instead of you know what? Put the melody into it. Does it feel right?

Like the original lyrics, my Weird Al Jankovich efforts to alter them, only works with willing participants. Are there victims of my desire? "Just Say No" because I feel like venting loud with you.

Seriously though, I am immaturely unhinged about the outcome yesterday. Maybe it's the high expectations of the last two seasons that seem ready to crash again. Adding to that, is Cam being injured again and we are going on a season and a half of DEFCON III injury secrecy, which has me feeling like I am being tortured to watch a reality TV show that I despise. Thanks Malamute for the "DEFCON III" contribution. It's fitting.

Halie recaps the tough loss against Arizona: