The drama of this realignment and strategic business thought is fascinating. Here is what I have read thus far:
BOTTOM LINE '95Ute odds of Utah winding up in a Power 2.... Less than 20%.
- Don't count on Notre Dame in the Big 10. They hate the Big 10. Reason? Decades ago the University of Michigan and the rest of the fledgling B10 discriminated against ND big time. Yes, pure racism/discrimination. No way they would let the school in due to religious and ethnic bias. Notre Dame tried for decades to get in only to be snubbed before setting out on a quest to create itself in to a power in order to "show the Big 10" what they missed. They accomplished that the roles have been reversed. Thus their alliance with the ACC. The only way they join the Big10 is if they believe they have no other path to a national championship.
- The ACC is likely in worse shape than the PAC12(10).... The ACC grant of rights runs through TWENTY THIRTY-SIX!! Yes, 2036. IIRC correctly, there is a payout to leave the conference equivalent to the lost revenue the team would take. SO... if the deal is worth $30,000,000 per team then the payout to leave is in the neighborhood of $390,000,000. That is INCREDIBLE. So... Clemson, UNC, Duke, FSU, Miami are simply hamstrung. That is incredible.
- If you are the SEC or the Big10 then there are only, really, 12 teams you can take to expand at this point.... From television markets biggest to smallest they are....
- Stanford / Cal (6th largest tv market)
- Houston (8th largest...)
- ASU/Arizona (12th largest...)
- Washington (14th largest...)
- Colorado (17th...)
- Oregon (25th...)
- Kansas (33rd...)
- Utah (34th...)
- Cincinnati (36th...)
- Oklahoma State (41st)
- NOTABLE MENTIONS: SDSU (28), UNLV (40), New Mexico (48)
- This issue is this... DOES THE MARKET add enough incremental revenue to add ANYONE to the SEC or Big10. The answer is almost certainly NO. Oregon has Phil Knight and he could make that work for Oregon. A team would have to take a prorated CUT of revenue in order to make further expansion feasible. As I read it this weekend no one moves the needle enough to justify lost revenues to member schools.
- Utah's potentially ONLY saving graces might be in no particular order: Winning football program (tops in the conference in the last 8 years); AAU membership; proximity to USC/UCLA to ease THEIR travel issues; facility investment. DO ANY OF THOSE sway the Big10 or SEC? Probably NOT if that means the EXISTING schools LOSE money to add them. Not sure what the BUY in would be but I am assuming is in the NEIGHBORHOOD of $150,000,000. That would be a good approximate of revenues they would have to FORGO in order to make the other member teams whole.
BOTTOM LINE '95Ute odds of Utah winding up in a Power 2.... Less than 20%.
