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Betting lines this week

displacedute

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Dec 12, 2005
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Vegas
Some lines for those who are interested. First, the Pac-12:

#14 Utah -7 @ WSU. Total is about 55, so Vegas is expecting roughly 31-24 Utah. I think that's low. If I were betting it, I'd take the over, particularly with Utah's running back situation.
#8 Oregon -17.5 @ Cal. Total is 58, so Vegas is expecting 38-20 for Oregon. This line has moved in Oregon's favor by about 4 points, so all the money's on Oregon to win and cover.
#10 USC -15.5 @ Arizona. Total is 77, so Vegas is expecting roughly 45-32 for USC. This line has moved a little bit in USC's favor, but that total's super high, so they're expecting a shootout.
ASU -13.5 @ Colorado. Total is 46.5, so Vegas is expecting a defensive battle ending about 30-17 for ASU. This line has moved a couple of points in ASU's favor.
Stanford +16.5 @ #12 UCLA. Total is 64, so Vegas is expecting UCLA to win about 40-24. Line hasn't moved much yet.

Four of the five home teams are dogs this week, so expect some surprise covers, as double-digit home dogs often cover. Honestly, a surprise upset could absolutely happen this week. Utah @WSU and USC @ Arizona are both possible, as both of those stadiums have a reputation for being the site of upsets.

Now the rest of the top 15 or so:
UF +22.5 @ #1 UGA. That's a big line, and betters agree, as it's moved a little bit towards Florida. Total is 56.5, so Vegas's expected score is roughly 40-17 UGA.
#2 OSU -15.5 @ #13 PSU. That's another pretty big line, on the road, but Penn State just got handled by Michigan. Total is 61, so Vegas expects a final of about 38-23 for OSU.
#19 Kentucky +12.5 @ #3 Tennessee. Total on this one is 63, so expected final is 38-25 for Tennessee.
MSU +22.5 @ #4 Michigan. This one has moved a ton in Michigan's favor, opening at 14.5, and the total has jumped to 54.5, so Vegas expects a final of roughly 38-16 for Michigan.
#7 TCU -7.5 @ WVU. Vegas expects TCU to struggle a little bit in Morgantown, but not too much. Total is up to 69, so they're expecting a final of 38-31 in TCU's favor.
#9 OK ST +2 @ #22 Kansas State. Yes, Vegas has KSU favored slightly at home over #9 OK ST. The total is 56, so they're expecting 29-27 KSU.
#10 Wake Forest -3.5 @ Louisville. This line has moved hard in Louisville's favor, opening at 6.5. The total is about 64, so Vegas expects 34-30 Wake.
#15 Ole Miss -2 @ ATM. This mine has moved a little in ATM's favor, opening at 3.5. Total is 55, so expected finish is about 29-27 for Ole Miss.

A couple of teams ahead of Utah on upset watch, including TCU, OK ST (who is the underdog), and Wake, plus PSU facing OSU. Any blowouts in any of those games would possibly put those teams below Utah, although 7 is a long way to fall for TCU.

Local teams lines are as follows:

ECU +3.5 @ BYU. BYU is favored by 3.5 over ECU with a total of about 62, meaning they expect the final to be 33-29 BYU. Line has moved about a point in ECU's favor, so bettors are cautious about BYU right now, even with a small line at home.
USU is on a bye.
 
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