Unfortunately, I think Utah is probably one of the clearest unknowns in the Pac-12 right now. Not just because they've yet to truly be tested by a good team but also because we don't know the extent of some of their major injuries. Because of this, it's really hard to get a feel of how good this team is, and ultimately - how good they'll be going forward if they get back to full health.
With that said, there's some strong realities that may positively impact the Utes: namely that the Pac-12 is questionable in many areas. No team looks unbeatable and teams that looked impressive, like Oregon, now look far more vulnerable than a week ago. The reality is, outside Washington, Utah could theoretically win any game left on their schedule. And maybe Washington, too, if Huntley is back by then. I doubt they will, or even question whether they'll come close to it, but it looks more possible right now than the hours after the Arizona game.
So, let's look at the schedule...
STANFORD
Utah has had Stanford's number since joining the Pac-12. That's good news. The bad news, or incomplete news, is that they've only played 'em twice in the six years prior. One of those years, the Cardinal was really good. In 2013, they won the conference that year, finished in the top10 and lost to Michigan State in the Rose Bowl - and the other, they were what they kinda sorta appear to be this year, okay but probably not great. In 2014, they finished 8-5, unranked and won the Foster Farms Bowl against Maryland.
Stanford, though, has kinda been all over the map this season. They looked scary good against Rice (yeah, I know it's Rice, so...), pretty average against SC and then San Diego State, but turned it on last night against UCLA and won, handily, 58-34. The latter, though, could be explained similarly to how the Utah-BYU rivalry can be explained: one team owns the other. Stanford just owns the Bruins under David Shaw and even in years where they're not very good (2015), they find a way to win - which they did that season against 9th ranked UCLA in the Rose Bowl.
This is a home game. A week after a bye. And against a team Utah matches up well with. On all that alone, you'd wager the Utes have a pretty good shot in this one - if not are outright favorites when the line opens in a week.
But Stanford will be the truest test Utah has faced this season. They're immensely better than Arizona and capable of pushing back into the top25. This is a game I feel Utah very well could win, regardless of who's starting at quarterback, but it's also one I'm not exactly confident in that they will win.
I also feel this game will kind of tell us how the season is going. If the Utes do pull out the win, and go to 5-0, we've got ourselves a division contender, even if Troy is playing the bulk, or all, the season. If they lose, it might not indicate a season of struggle but it also probably indicates we're going to be playing for second in the South all season long. That's not necessarily out of the expectations we had prior to the season. But I've mentioned in the past there are early games that open things up for you that, if you take advantage, can really alter the season in a positive way. UCLA did this for Utah in 2014, Oregon in 2015 and USC last year. Those three wins all put the conference on notice that Utah was still going to be there, and still going to fight until the bitter end. That's the Stanford game this year. It's a true statement game for the Utes. So far, despite being in the top20, that's something they've yet to make this season.
@ USC
Utah has not won in Los Angeles against the Trojans since 1916. Over 100 years ago. Most of that is an extension of the fact they only played a handful of times there since prior to Utah joining the Pac-12 (four times - and all before 1950) but this is the one stadium the Utes (outside Memorial, at Cal, go figure) have yet to win in since joining the Pac-12. Look it up. That's one of those odd stats but it's true. They've won at Autzen and Stanford and Reiser and Martin and Huskie Stadium - they've won at Sun Devil Stadium, the Rose Bowl, Folsom Field and Arizona Stadium. The two stadiums we've yet to grab a victory at, though? Cal Memorial and the Coliseum.
It'd be a pretty remarkable way to end that 100+ year drought. And USC looked very beatable the last two weeks against decent, but maybe not great, P5 teams. That's kinda where I put Utah right now. I feel they're on Cal and Texas' level.
Still, the Utes won't be favorites in this game, you know, outside the Trojans getting boatraced by Wazzu and Oregon State, and the Utes dominate Stanford. That's not going to happen. I think one of those could happen (the Cougs rolling USC like they did Oregon a few years ago and Stanford last year) but SC ain't losing to Oregon and, as much as I feel Utah can beat Stanford, I doubt they'll dominate that game.
And yet, this is a winnable game for Utah. Even with Troy. It'll be harder to win, and the Utes will certainly have to play a near-perfect game with him, but it's doable. I'd feel a lot better if Huntley was playing this one, but Troy is 1-0 against the Trojans, so...
The thing is, the Utes have not done well in the Coliseum since almost knocking off the Trojans in the very first game in Pac-12 (as a 12 member conference) history. Each of the other two contests, both coming shortly after the Trojans made a coaching change, have been embarrassingly bad for the Utes. The worst, of course, was in 2015 when third-ranked Utah became the first team in a decade-plus, to be ranked in the top5 and road dogs to an unranked opponent. It proved prophetic and the Trojans depantsed Utah in a blowout loss. I don't actually see this game going that badly for the Utes. They're more talented than in 2015 and, frankly, both quarterbacks are much better than Wilson was that season, even with Troy's limitations.
But I'm not quite convinced Utah wins this game. Even with Huntley. Though, I'd feel better about their chances if he was back. This might be a game Utah can afford to lose if we're conceding a division title is not really in the cards but maybe a better bowl game is.
ASU
The Sun Devils have looked putrid for 90% of the season. Fortunately for them, that 10% came to start conference play against a Duck team everyone felt had turned the corner and was vastly improved from last year's squad. I agree - Oregon is better than they were a year ago. But maybe the talk of them being back was premature. The Sun Devils are a bad team. That was a bad loss by the Ducks. It may indicate they're not nearly as good as people assumed, which I was kinda glad to see because of who Utah's opponent the week after this one here (who I think Utah should beat).
@ Oregon
This game has scared me since the schedule came out. But I feel a lot better about it after watching Oregon struggle with ASU. This would be a great opportunity for Carrington to step up and show his old team what they lost when they cut him loose. Still, Autzen is a very tough place to play and I still think the Ducks are good enough to win. But this is as winnable of a game against Oregon on the road as it's been for Utah since joining the Pac-12 and you can't beat that, I guess.
UCLA
Since this is technically a November game, I'm wary. The Bruins, though, look abysmal all around outside quarterback. And who knows if Josh Rosen, with that line, will even be starting against the Utes. This is generally a competitive game regardless, though, as each of the last few meetings weren't decided until late in the fourth. I'd love for a comfortable win, here, though.
Wazzu
I don't even know what to think of this game. The Cougars look like they could be the second best team in the conference. If they knock off USC Friday, they'll stake claim to that title outright. But it offers Utah a great chance, and opportunity, to get a huge win at home over potentially a ranked team. In the bowl hunt, that's invaluable.
@ Washington
I have no expectations beyond wanting Utah to play 'em well and not get blown out.
Colorado
The Buffaloes looked good early against the Huskies but far less good as I expected a few weeks ago. I think Colorado is going to take a step back. They were not really competitive with Washington in that second half. Conversely, though, they weren't last year, either, and still won the division. So, who knows? But I feel good about Utah's chances in this one.
Of course, all this is based on health. Utah gets healthy, and stays healthy, and this season can still be something really good. I don't know if Troy leading the offense the rest of the way can result in a similar outcome, but I feel a bit better after watching other teams this past week. I still think the Utes have the potential to be the second best team in the division - and, with a few breaks, maybe they become the best team in the division.
But as I said at the beginning of this really overly wordy post, Stanford I think will tell us what path we're heading down as a team this year. IF we win that game, I think it's possible Utah can flirt, again, with a division title. They might not win it, but once you get out of that game, even if you give 'em two losses to USC and Washington, there's still potential there for a really strong season, one that even possibly gets 'em a NY6 bowl if things break in their direction. Not likely, but it also might lead to the Alamo or Holiday - two bowls Utah has failed to grab in seasons they did well at the start but faded in the end. Let's hope there's no fade this season and Utah can get it done in the next few weeks. If, at worst, they're 6-1 heading into Eugene, I'll be very satisfied with the direction of the season - if not downright giddy. If they're 5-2, I'll be a bit worried of that fade. If they're 4-3, well, buckle up.
I'm really cheering for 7-0, though.
With that said, there's some strong realities that may positively impact the Utes: namely that the Pac-12 is questionable in many areas. No team looks unbeatable and teams that looked impressive, like Oregon, now look far more vulnerable than a week ago. The reality is, outside Washington, Utah could theoretically win any game left on their schedule. And maybe Washington, too, if Huntley is back by then. I doubt they will, or even question whether they'll come close to it, but it looks more possible right now than the hours after the Arizona game.
So, let's look at the schedule...
STANFORD
Utah has had Stanford's number since joining the Pac-12. That's good news. The bad news, or incomplete news, is that they've only played 'em twice in the six years prior. One of those years, the Cardinal was really good. In 2013, they won the conference that year, finished in the top10 and lost to Michigan State in the Rose Bowl - and the other, they were what they kinda sorta appear to be this year, okay but probably not great. In 2014, they finished 8-5, unranked and won the Foster Farms Bowl against Maryland.
Stanford, though, has kinda been all over the map this season. They looked scary good against Rice (yeah, I know it's Rice, so...), pretty average against SC and then San Diego State, but turned it on last night against UCLA and won, handily, 58-34. The latter, though, could be explained similarly to how the Utah-BYU rivalry can be explained: one team owns the other. Stanford just owns the Bruins under David Shaw and even in years where they're not very good (2015), they find a way to win - which they did that season against 9th ranked UCLA in the Rose Bowl.
This is a home game. A week after a bye. And against a team Utah matches up well with. On all that alone, you'd wager the Utes have a pretty good shot in this one - if not are outright favorites when the line opens in a week.
But Stanford will be the truest test Utah has faced this season. They're immensely better than Arizona and capable of pushing back into the top25. This is a game I feel Utah very well could win, regardless of who's starting at quarterback, but it's also one I'm not exactly confident in that they will win.
I also feel this game will kind of tell us how the season is going. If the Utes do pull out the win, and go to 5-0, we've got ourselves a division contender, even if Troy is playing the bulk, or all, the season. If they lose, it might not indicate a season of struggle but it also probably indicates we're going to be playing for second in the South all season long. That's not necessarily out of the expectations we had prior to the season. But I've mentioned in the past there are early games that open things up for you that, if you take advantage, can really alter the season in a positive way. UCLA did this for Utah in 2014, Oregon in 2015 and USC last year. Those three wins all put the conference on notice that Utah was still going to be there, and still going to fight until the bitter end. That's the Stanford game this year. It's a true statement game for the Utes. So far, despite being in the top20, that's something they've yet to make this season.
@ USC
Utah has not won in Los Angeles against the Trojans since 1916. Over 100 years ago. Most of that is an extension of the fact they only played a handful of times there since prior to Utah joining the Pac-12 (four times - and all before 1950) but this is the one stadium the Utes (outside Memorial, at Cal, go figure) have yet to win in since joining the Pac-12. Look it up. That's one of those odd stats but it's true. They've won at Autzen and Stanford and Reiser and Martin and Huskie Stadium - they've won at Sun Devil Stadium, the Rose Bowl, Folsom Field and Arizona Stadium. The two stadiums we've yet to grab a victory at, though? Cal Memorial and the Coliseum.
It'd be a pretty remarkable way to end that 100+ year drought. And USC looked very beatable the last two weeks against decent, but maybe not great, P5 teams. That's kinda where I put Utah right now. I feel they're on Cal and Texas' level.
Still, the Utes won't be favorites in this game, you know, outside the Trojans getting boatraced by Wazzu and Oregon State, and the Utes dominate Stanford. That's not going to happen. I think one of those could happen (the Cougs rolling USC like they did Oregon a few years ago and Stanford last year) but SC ain't losing to Oregon and, as much as I feel Utah can beat Stanford, I doubt they'll dominate that game.
And yet, this is a winnable game for Utah. Even with Troy. It'll be harder to win, and the Utes will certainly have to play a near-perfect game with him, but it's doable. I'd feel a lot better if Huntley was playing this one, but Troy is 1-0 against the Trojans, so...
The thing is, the Utes have not done well in the Coliseum since almost knocking off the Trojans in the very first game in Pac-12 (as a 12 member conference) history. Each of the other two contests, both coming shortly after the Trojans made a coaching change, have been embarrassingly bad for the Utes. The worst, of course, was in 2015 when third-ranked Utah became the first team in a decade-plus, to be ranked in the top5 and road dogs to an unranked opponent. It proved prophetic and the Trojans depantsed Utah in a blowout loss. I don't actually see this game going that badly for the Utes. They're more talented than in 2015 and, frankly, both quarterbacks are much better than Wilson was that season, even with Troy's limitations.
But I'm not quite convinced Utah wins this game. Even with Huntley. Though, I'd feel better about their chances if he was back. This might be a game Utah can afford to lose if we're conceding a division title is not really in the cards but maybe a better bowl game is.
ASU
The Sun Devils have looked putrid for 90% of the season. Fortunately for them, that 10% came to start conference play against a Duck team everyone felt had turned the corner and was vastly improved from last year's squad. I agree - Oregon is better than they were a year ago. But maybe the talk of them being back was premature. The Sun Devils are a bad team. That was a bad loss by the Ducks. It may indicate they're not nearly as good as people assumed, which I was kinda glad to see because of who Utah's opponent the week after this one here (who I think Utah should beat).
@ Oregon
This game has scared me since the schedule came out. But I feel a lot better about it after watching Oregon struggle with ASU. This would be a great opportunity for Carrington to step up and show his old team what they lost when they cut him loose. Still, Autzen is a very tough place to play and I still think the Ducks are good enough to win. But this is as winnable of a game against Oregon on the road as it's been for Utah since joining the Pac-12 and you can't beat that, I guess.
UCLA
Since this is technically a November game, I'm wary. The Bruins, though, look abysmal all around outside quarterback. And who knows if Josh Rosen, with that line, will even be starting against the Utes. This is generally a competitive game regardless, though, as each of the last few meetings weren't decided until late in the fourth. I'd love for a comfortable win, here, though.
Wazzu
I don't even know what to think of this game. The Cougars look like they could be the second best team in the conference. If they knock off USC Friday, they'll stake claim to that title outright. But it offers Utah a great chance, and opportunity, to get a huge win at home over potentially a ranked team. In the bowl hunt, that's invaluable.
@ Washington
I have no expectations beyond wanting Utah to play 'em well and not get blown out.
Colorado
The Buffaloes looked good early against the Huskies but far less good as I expected a few weeks ago. I think Colorado is going to take a step back. They were not really competitive with Washington in that second half. Conversely, though, they weren't last year, either, and still won the division. So, who knows? But I feel good about Utah's chances in this one.
Of course, all this is based on health. Utah gets healthy, and stays healthy, and this season can still be something really good. I don't know if Troy leading the offense the rest of the way can result in a similar outcome, but I feel a bit better after watching other teams this past week. I still think the Utes have the potential to be the second best team in the division - and, with a few breaks, maybe they become the best team in the division.
But as I said at the beginning of this really overly wordy post, Stanford I think will tell us what path we're heading down as a team this year. IF we win that game, I think it's possible Utah can flirt, again, with a division title. They might not win it, but once you get out of that game, even if you give 'em two losses to USC and Washington, there's still potential there for a really strong season, one that even possibly gets 'em a NY6 bowl if things break in their direction. Not likely, but it also might lead to the Alamo or Holiday - two bowls Utah has failed to grab in seasons they did well at the start but faded in the end. Let's hope there's no fade this season and Utah can get it done in the next few weeks. If, at worst, they're 6-1 heading into Eugene, I'll be very satisfied with the direction of the season - if not downright giddy. If they're 5-2, I'll be a bit worried of that fade. If they're 4-3, well, buckle up.
I'm really cheering for 7-0, though.
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