I know Joseph has a calculator for this stuff, but I don't. I'm going to give my explanations and my thoughts.
First, I think Utah's got about a 75% chance of beating Oregon on Friday, so take that into consideration. I think the rest of the CCG all go chalk as well. The spreads are pretty big this weekend, as I've mentioned elsewhere:
Utah -6.5 over Oregon
LSU -7 over UGA
OU -8.5 over Baylor
OSU -16.5 over Wisky
Clemson -28.8 over UVA
Those look like a recipe for favorites to win, and most of the money's been on favorites (Utah moved from -4.5, LSU from -4, Clemson from -24.5).
So I think the most likely scenario is every favorite wins. If that happens, I think OSU stays #1 and the NY6 bowls end up as follows:
Fiesta: #1 OSU v. #4 Utah (this could be the Peach bowl, but I don't think it will be)
Peach: #2 LSU v. #3 Clemson
Rose: #15 Oregon v. #9 Wisconsin (I think they stay ahead of PSU unless they lose by 60)
Sugar: #5 Oklahoma v. #6 UGA
Orange: #7 Florida v. #25 UVA
Cotton: #16 Memphis v. #8 Baylor
If LSU gets to #1, they'll get the Peach bowl for sure, but I think OSU stays there. I think the odds of these teams being in these bowls are about 50% (this category also includes if LSU gets back to #1 by beating UGA).
I think there's about a 30% chance that even if Utah wins, Oklahoma passes Utah for that #4 spot. If that happens, the bowls would look like this:
Fiesta: #1 OSU v. #4 Oklahoma
Peach: #2 LSU v. #3 Clemson
Rose: #5 Utah v. #9 Wisconsin
Sugar: #8 Baylor v. #6 UGA
Orange: #7 Florida v. #25 UVA
Cotton: #16 Memphis v. #10 PSU
Now I do think there's a small but real chance that Utah loses. I'd put the chances of this scenario at about 15%. If that happens but the rest of the CFP goes chalk, then the bowls break down as follows:
Fiesta: #1 OSU v. #4 Oklahoma
Peach: #2 LSU v. #3 Clemson
Rose: #11 Oregon v. #8 Wisconsin
Sugar: #7 Baylor v. #5 UGA
Orange: #6 Florida v. #25 UVA
Cotton: #16 Memphis v. #9 Utah
Now there's one other scenario: Utah loses AND LSU loses. If that happens, then I think the bowls look like this:
Fiesta: #1 OSU v. #4 LSU
Peach: #2 Clemson v. #3 UGA
Rose: #11 Oregon v. #8 Wisconsin
Sugar: #5 Oklahoma v. #6 Florida
Orange: #7 PSU v. #25 UVA
Cotton: #16 Memphis v. #9 Baylor
#10 Utah to the Alamo Bowl in this scenario. I think the odds of this are about 5%
Obviously I didn't consider any craziness like Baylor, Wisconsin, or UVA winning. That's too hard to try and figure out.
Anybody think I'm crazy? You wouldn't be the first.
First, I think Utah's got about a 75% chance of beating Oregon on Friday, so take that into consideration. I think the rest of the CCG all go chalk as well. The spreads are pretty big this weekend, as I've mentioned elsewhere:
Utah -6.5 over Oregon
LSU -7 over UGA
OU -8.5 over Baylor
OSU -16.5 over Wisky
Clemson -28.8 over UVA
Those look like a recipe for favorites to win, and most of the money's been on favorites (Utah moved from -4.5, LSU from -4, Clemson from -24.5).
So I think the most likely scenario is every favorite wins. If that happens, I think OSU stays #1 and the NY6 bowls end up as follows:
Fiesta: #1 OSU v. #4 Utah (this could be the Peach bowl, but I don't think it will be)
Peach: #2 LSU v. #3 Clemson
Rose: #15 Oregon v. #9 Wisconsin (I think they stay ahead of PSU unless they lose by 60)
Sugar: #5 Oklahoma v. #6 UGA
Orange: #7 Florida v. #25 UVA
Cotton: #16 Memphis v. #8 Baylor
If LSU gets to #1, they'll get the Peach bowl for sure, but I think OSU stays there. I think the odds of these teams being in these bowls are about 50% (this category also includes if LSU gets back to #1 by beating UGA).
I think there's about a 30% chance that even if Utah wins, Oklahoma passes Utah for that #4 spot. If that happens, the bowls would look like this:
Fiesta: #1 OSU v. #4 Oklahoma
Peach: #2 LSU v. #3 Clemson
Rose: #5 Utah v. #9 Wisconsin
Sugar: #8 Baylor v. #6 UGA
Orange: #7 Florida v. #25 UVA
Cotton: #16 Memphis v. #10 PSU
Now I do think there's a small but real chance that Utah loses. I'd put the chances of this scenario at about 15%. If that happens but the rest of the CFP goes chalk, then the bowls break down as follows:
Fiesta: #1 OSU v. #4 Oklahoma
Peach: #2 LSU v. #3 Clemson
Rose: #11 Oregon v. #8 Wisconsin
Sugar: #7 Baylor v. #5 UGA
Orange: #6 Florida v. #25 UVA
Cotton: #16 Memphis v. #9 Utah
Now there's one other scenario: Utah loses AND LSU loses. If that happens, then I think the bowls look like this:
Fiesta: #1 OSU v. #4 LSU
Peach: #2 Clemson v. #3 UGA
Rose: #11 Oregon v. #8 Wisconsin
Sugar: #5 Oklahoma v. #6 Florida
Orange: #7 PSU v. #25 UVA
Cotton: #16 Memphis v. #9 Baylor
#10 Utah to the Alamo Bowl in this scenario. I think the odds of this are about 5%
Obviously I didn't consider any craziness like Baylor, Wisconsin, or UVA winning. That's too hard to try and figure out.
Anybody think I'm crazy? You wouldn't be the first.
