SSDS: same sh!#, different season
With all due respect to FlaUte and his “Offensive Identity” thread and Z21 Ute and his “Thoughts on Troy Taylor so far” thread, the time has come, my dear friends of Ute Nation, to start the ultimate, one-stop shopping source for our favorite topic: Utah offensive football woes, disappointments, incompetence and glimmers of hope. Yes, one thread to rule them all.
Do you realize that if we had started such a thread back when the Big Xii was, hahahaha
, looking at inviting BYU, hahaha, that this thread could have accomplished what Kim Kardashian could not, namely “break the internet.” Ok, seriously, I submit, such a thread would have given the Big Xii thread a run for it’s money. The Big Xii thread has a good lead, but I predict that if henceforth we were to post all our thoughts on the Utah offense to this one thread that by the third quarter of this year’s CU game we’ll have caught up to the Big Xii thread. Up for the challenge?
Where to start?
Well, let’s take up where FlaUte and Z21Ute opened this up: is it too early to start murmuring about Taylor, Whit and the 2017 offense?
The consensus of opinion from the responses to Z21’s thread is that it’s too soon to pass judgment on Taylor to this point. There were also some thoughts in that post that there were no meaningful benchmarks to use to grade his performance. In fact, Cjex, whose post I’ve copied, has an interesting take that Taylor needs more time because we don’t yet have the players to run his system and the players we have weren’t recruited to run this type of offense.
While cjex's take has some appeal, and perhaps a modicum of truth, it’s just an excuse.
We’ve changed offensive systems before and not had the ideal players to run the new system. Despite such challenges, it is possible, even at a place such as Utah, to achieve a greater improvement in offensive production at a faster rate. The recent paradigm for offensive turnaround, I submit, is Urban Meyer in 2003. Would anyone disagree that Urban had less of the desired talent to run his system when he arrived on campus than what Taylor now has at his disposal? From what I remember of Mac’s teams, he was a pro-style guy, often employing a one back look. Two years later Urban was running something that was day and night different from Mac’s offense. Yet, it didn’t take two years for Urban to flip the switch. In fact, it didn’t take longer than Taylor has now had: seven games.
Through seven games, the same point at which we enter this week’s contest against Oregon, Urban’s 2003 team had scored 198 points compared with 160 through seven games in 2002. That’s almost a 24% improvement in points scored, using basically the same players that were on hand the prior year. More importantly, the Win-Loss percentage through seven games had skyrocketed from under .300 to .8571, a 200% increase. So, to say that’s it's too early to expect dramatic improvement is only partially true. In fact, because it has happened before, we've been spoiled into expecting it with each change, which is why we're perpetually disappointed.
Injuries are also no excuse. Meyer lost Brett Elliott in the second game and had to go to a new QB. Further, although these players were lost after 2003 game 7, Meyer had to finish the 2003 season without rushing leader Brandon Warfield and receiving leading Parris Warren. At one point, Meyer converted TE Ben Moa to running back – a TE for goodness sake!! -- and got 125 yards rushing from him against Wyoming.
Granted, Meyer is one of the all-time great coaches in college football history. I certainly don’t expect to hold Taylor, or anyone, to Meyer’s standard. That said, I am unimpressed by any claims that the cupboard is bare or that Taylor does not have the right types of dishes. We’ve seen lesser coaches than Meyer take a pig’s ear and make a silk purse. For example:
So, where do we stand this year through seven games? Compared with the 2016 start, Taylor has increased scoring by 5.35%. However, the W-L percentage is down a third.
Is any of this relevant at this point? Seven games does not make a season. There’s still time for Taylor and Co. to turn things around against what appears to be a manageable schedule. Outside of the Washington teams, if you had asked me a week ago, I would have favored Utah in three of the remaining five games. In the bigger picture, it’s more important that Taylor shows signs of being the guy who can develop continuity and instill confidence in his guys. Most importantly, however, Taylor needs to give his boss reason to have confidence in him.
However, seven games likely is sufficient to inform us what kind of season this is going to be. Based on historical results from the Whittingham era, it could be a tough season; that hoped-for turnaround looks unlikely. In only two seasons of the PAC-12 era has Utah had a better overall record on the season than the W-L% through seven games: 2012 and 2011. Here are two reasons why a second-half turnaround looks unlikely.
First, the PAC-12 is more balanced now than when Utah came into the league. The first two years of the PAC-12, the bottom half of the PAC-12 was horrible. For instance, in 2011 Utah had back-end victories over Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA, Washington State and the bowl win over GA Tech. Of the four PAC-12 teams, only one finished with a winning record in conference (UCLA 5-4) and the conference aggregate W-L record of those four teams was 12-24. In 2012, an even more dismal season, Utah started 2-5 and notched back-end victories over Cal, WASU and CU, teams that finished with aggregate conference records of 4-23.
Utah’s remaining opponents are currently 12-12 in conference, with two at 4-1. Seemingly our most “winnable” game is this week at Oregon. Many on this board are pessimistic about Utah's chances to beat Oregon.
Second, we lack a clear #1 QB who can stay healthy. Under Whitt, Utah’s had five seasons in which the “#1 QB” has attempted fewer than 70% of the team’s passes. In three of those five seasons, Utah’s record has improved over the final 5 regular season contests. Key to all three turnaround seasons is the eventual #1 QB either returned to action or secured his hold on the job and led the rest of the way: 2007 (Brian Johnson); 2011 (Jon Hays); and 2012 (Travis Wilson). Right now, Huntley has less than 65% of the team’s pass attempts (63.52%). For Utah to have a chance at finishing the final games at 3-2 or better, we likely need either Williams or Huntley to take control and stay strong down the stretch. Presumably that guy is Huntley, but he's yet to start and finish a PAC-12 game healthy. In the two seasons where we didn't have an end-of-year turnabout seasons, we saw: (1) Wilson and Shultz alternate starts and finishes in 2013, and the Utes’ season finish as ugly as it started; and (2) Terrance Cain give way to Jordan Wynn, and the 2009 season end on an uptick with an impressive win over Cal. However, in both of these two seasons we saw a shake-up in the OC spot, with Erickson giving way to Dave Christensen in 2014 and Dave Schramm losing his job to Aaron Rodderick.
So, would the failure to finish this season at 3-2 or better, and hence, turnaround the seasons, cost Taylor his job?
Unlikely. I don't think Whitt is that impulsive.
However, you certainly could convince me that the failure to go at least 3-2 the rest of this season would put Taylor on a bit of hot seat going into 2018. Consider this: Rodderick started his two PAC-12 years at 6-1. As we know, in both 2015 and 2016 the Utes' season ended less impressively than it began. Rodderick only got two PAC-12 years. Further, in his MWC stint as sole OC, Rodderick started the 2010 year a perfect 7-0, but only finished 10-3. Rodderick lost his job to Chow in 2011. My takeway, Taylor has a grace year this year, but he better come strong next year and finish strong.
With all due respect to FlaUte and his “Offensive Identity” thread and Z21 Ute and his “Thoughts on Troy Taylor so far” thread, the time has come, my dear friends of Ute Nation, to start the ultimate, one-stop shopping source for our favorite topic: Utah offensive football woes, disappointments, incompetence and glimmers of hope. Yes, one thread to rule them all.
Do you realize that if we had started such a thread back when the Big Xii was, hahahaha
, looking at inviting BYU, hahaha, that this thread could have accomplished what Kim Kardashian could not, namely “break the internet.” Ok, seriously, I submit, such a thread would have given the Big Xii thread a run for it’s money. The Big Xii thread has a good lead, but I predict that if henceforth we were to post all our thoughts on the Utah offense to this one thread that by the third quarter of this year’s CU game we’ll have caught up to the Big Xii thread. Up for the challenge?Where to start?
Well, let’s take up where FlaUte and Z21Ute opened this up: is it too early to start murmuring about Taylor, Whit and the 2017 offense?
The consensus of opinion from the responses to Z21’s thread is that it’s too soon to pass judgment on Taylor to this point. There were also some thoughts in that post that there were no meaningful benchmarks to use to grade his performance. In fact, Cjex, whose post I’ve copied, has an interesting take that Taylor needs more time because we don’t yet have the players to run his system and the players we have weren’t recruited to run this type of offense.
While cjex's take has some appeal, and perhaps a modicum of truth, it’s just an excuse.
We’ve changed offensive systems before and not had the ideal players to run the new system. Despite such challenges, it is possible, even at a place such as Utah, to achieve a greater improvement in offensive production at a faster rate. The recent paradigm for offensive turnaround, I submit, is Urban Meyer in 2003. Would anyone disagree that Urban had less of the desired talent to run his system when he arrived on campus than what Taylor now has at his disposal? From what I remember of Mac’s teams, he was a pro-style guy, often employing a one back look. Two years later Urban was running something that was day and night different from Mac’s offense. Yet, it didn’t take two years for Urban to flip the switch. In fact, it didn’t take longer than Taylor has now had: seven games.
Through seven games, the same point at which we enter this week’s contest against Oregon, Urban’s 2003 team had scored 198 points compared with 160 through seven games in 2002. That’s almost a 24% improvement in points scored, using basically the same players that were on hand the prior year. More importantly, the Win-Loss percentage through seven games had skyrocketed from under .300 to .8571, a 200% increase. So, to say that’s it's too early to expect dramatic improvement is only partially true. In fact, because it has happened before, we've been spoiled into expecting it with each change, which is why we're perpetually disappointed.
Injuries are also no excuse. Meyer lost Brett Elliott in the second game and had to go to a new QB. Further, although these players were lost after 2003 game 7, Meyer had to finish the 2003 season without rushing leader Brandon Warfield and receiving leading Parris Warren. At one point, Meyer converted TE Ben Moa to running back – a TE for goodness sake!! -- and got 125 yards rushing from him against Wyoming.
Granted, Meyer is one of the all-time great coaches in college football history. I certainly don’t expect to hold Taylor, or anyone, to Meyer’s standard. That said, I am unimpressed by any claims that the cupboard is bare or that Taylor does not have the right types of dishes. We’ve seen lesser coaches than Meyer take a pig’s ear and make a silk purse. For example:
- In 2007, Ludwig (effectively) lost Brian Johnson to yet another injury and Utah was getting pummeled by the early season competition. Ludwig responded by taking the air out of the football, or vice-versa, the football out of the air, and putting it into Darrell Mack’s belly. After starting 1-3, including the infamous UNLV debacle, Utah rallied to 9-4.
- Six years later, in the midst of Utah’s transition to the PAC-12, Dennis Erickson came in and coached Utah’s offense to the threshold of respectability. Taking what he inherited from the year prior, Erickson improved Utah’s scoring output from 141 points per game (through seven games) to 246 points per game, a 75% improvement. Erickson also improved W-L% by 50% year-over-year (through seven games).
- Not to be outdone, Dave Christensen took what Erickson left him and again doubled the W-L% percentage (through seven games: .8571 vs. .4286).
So, where do we stand this year through seven games? Compared with the 2016 start, Taylor has increased scoring by 5.35%
. However, the W-L percentage is down a third. Is any of this relevant at this point? Seven games does not make a season. There’s still time for Taylor and Co. to turn things around against what appears to be a manageable schedule. Outside of the Washington teams, if you had asked me a week ago, I would have favored Utah in three of the remaining five games. In the bigger picture, it’s more important that Taylor shows signs of being the guy who can develop continuity and instill confidence in his guys. Most importantly, however, Taylor needs to give his boss reason to have confidence in him.
However, seven games likely is sufficient to inform us what kind of season this is going to be. Based on historical results from the Whittingham era, it could be a tough season; that hoped-for turnaround looks unlikely. In only two seasons of the PAC-12 era has Utah had a better overall record on the season than the W-L% through seven games: 2012 and 2011. Here are two reasons why a second-half turnaround looks unlikely.
First, the PAC-12 is more balanced now than when Utah came into the league. The first two years of the PAC-12, the bottom half of the PAC-12 was horrible. For instance, in 2011 Utah had back-end victories over Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA, Washington State and the bowl win over GA Tech. Of the four PAC-12 teams, only one finished with a winning record in conference (UCLA 5-4) and the conference aggregate W-L record of those four teams was 12-24. In 2012, an even more dismal season, Utah started 2-5 and notched back-end victories over Cal, WASU and CU, teams that finished with aggregate conference records of 4-23.
Utah’s remaining opponents are currently 12-12 in conference, with two at 4-1. Seemingly our most “winnable” game is this week at Oregon. Many on this board are pessimistic about Utah's chances to beat Oregon.
Second, we lack a clear #1 QB who can stay healthy. Under Whitt, Utah’s had five seasons in which the “#1 QB” has attempted fewer than 70% of the team’s passes. In three of those five seasons, Utah’s record has improved over the final 5 regular season contests. Key to all three turnaround seasons is the eventual #1 QB either returned to action or secured his hold on the job and led the rest of the way: 2007 (Brian Johnson); 2011 (Jon Hays); and 2012 (Travis Wilson). Right now, Huntley has less than 65% of the team’s pass attempts (63.52%). For Utah to have a chance at finishing the final games at 3-2 or better, we likely need either Williams or Huntley to take control and stay strong down the stretch. Presumably that guy is Huntley, but he's yet to start and finish a PAC-12 game healthy. In the two seasons where we didn't have an end-of-year turnabout seasons, we saw: (1) Wilson and Shultz alternate starts and finishes in 2013, and the Utes’ season finish as ugly as it started; and (2) Terrance Cain give way to Jordan Wynn, and the 2009 season end on an uptick with an impressive win over Cal. However, in both of these two seasons we saw a shake-up in the OC spot, with Erickson giving way to Dave Christensen in 2014 and Dave Schramm losing his job to Aaron Rodderick.
So, would the failure to finish this season at 3-2 or better, and hence, turnaround the seasons, cost Taylor his job?
Unlikely. I don't think Whitt is that impulsive.
However, you certainly could convince me that the failure to go at least 3-2 the rest of this season would put Taylor on a bit of hot seat going into 2018. Consider this: Rodderick started his two PAC-12 years at 6-1. As we know, in both 2015 and 2016 the Utes' season ended less impressively than it began. Rodderick only got two PAC-12 years. Further, in his MWC stint as sole OC, Rodderick started the 2010 year a perfect 7-0, but only finished 10-3. Rodderick lost his job to Chow in 2011. My takeway, Taylor has a grace year this year, but he better come strong next year and finish strong.
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