Over the past several years I find it interesting to analyze box scores for pretty much any team but particularly the Runnin' Utes and to no one's surprise I'm sure, you can predict which team won the game based on three statistics without looking at points. The three statistics are rebounds, turnovers and free throws attempted.
How did they do tonight against WSU?
Rebounds... WSU 35 Utah 30
Turnovers... WSU 17 Utah 4
Free throw attempts... WSU 29 Utah 22
The difference between total rebounds and turnovers has Utah at plus 8. If Utah shoots appx 45% and throw a 3-pointer in for good measure, you're looking at about a 7 point win tonight BEFORE considering free throws attempts. Figure both teams shoot 75% at the line and the 7 point win is now a 3.5 point win. This would obviously make me a bit nervous and I would go to the determining factor which would be 3 pointers attempted. Tonight it was WSU 19 Utah 24. A 40% clip for each team would put it at 7.6 to 9.6 made three pointers...I would add 2 points to the previous 3.5 (two points versus 6 because shooting more threes doesn't mean the other team didn't make a two pointer with their other possessions).
To me this game looks like a 5 or 6 point win when looking at those four stats. So where did the other 16 points come from? One would typically assume one of two things (or both)... Utah shot a high FG percentage and/or they held WSU to a low FG percentage. One could also be wrong...
WSU FG% = 45.7 / UTAH FG% = 48.3
That's not a huge difference put when you consider the extra possessions and the slight edge in FG% you can pretty safely assume about another 10 points on top of our 6 points above. Still doesn't get us to 22 though. What does? despite the FTs attempted edge to WSU, Utah actually made 5 more...which brings us to 21 (oh so close to the actual 22).
If you're actually still reading then I'm sorry... you must really be bored.
So here's the point I think I wanted to make:
22 point wins can be deceiving. I for one will be nervous when the Runnin' Utes head to Pullman on Mar 5th. Why?
1) We can't defend free throws. Will Wazzu shoot 7 more free throws than Utah again, and if so will they shoot 52% to our 86%?
2) Can we expect to only have 4 turnovers when this is the first time Utah has had as little as 4 turnovers since '98?
3) Will we get out rebounded by 5ish again?
This isn't meant to be a negative post. Utah won this game and clearly deserved to win this game. But this is where players can get thinking they're better than they are. Good defense and playing under control on offense is what won this game tonight. There's no reason to think Utah can't do that again in Pullman, but the wide difference in FT% and the wide difference in turnover margin is something I wouldn't bank on come Mar 5th. I do however expect Utah to show better on the boards (Poeltl should help).
A lot can change from now until then, but I'd be willing to bet it'll be a much closer game in Pullman. Utah HAS to get back to outrebounding it's opponents.
How did they do tonight against WSU?
Rebounds... WSU 35 Utah 30
Turnovers... WSU 17 Utah 4
Free throw attempts... WSU 29 Utah 22
The difference between total rebounds and turnovers has Utah at plus 8. If Utah shoots appx 45% and throw a 3-pointer in for good measure, you're looking at about a 7 point win tonight BEFORE considering free throws attempts. Figure both teams shoot 75% at the line and the 7 point win is now a 3.5 point win. This would obviously make me a bit nervous and I would go to the determining factor which would be 3 pointers attempted. Tonight it was WSU 19 Utah 24. A 40% clip for each team would put it at 7.6 to 9.6 made three pointers...I would add 2 points to the previous 3.5 (two points versus 6 because shooting more threes doesn't mean the other team didn't make a two pointer with their other possessions).
To me this game looks like a 5 or 6 point win when looking at those four stats. So where did the other 16 points come from? One would typically assume one of two things (or both)... Utah shot a high FG percentage and/or they held WSU to a low FG percentage. One could also be wrong...
WSU FG% = 45.7 / UTAH FG% = 48.3
That's not a huge difference put when you consider the extra possessions and the slight edge in FG% you can pretty safely assume about another 10 points on top of our 6 points above. Still doesn't get us to 22 though. What does? despite the FTs attempted edge to WSU, Utah actually made 5 more...which brings us to 21 (oh so close to the actual 22).
If you're actually still reading then I'm sorry... you must really be bored.
So here's the point I think I wanted to make:
22 point wins can be deceiving. I for one will be nervous when the Runnin' Utes head to Pullman on Mar 5th. Why?
1) We can't defend free throws. Will Wazzu shoot 7 more free throws than Utah again, and if so will they shoot 52% to our 86%?
2) Can we expect to only have 4 turnovers when this is the first time Utah has had as little as 4 turnovers since '98?
3) Will we get out rebounded by 5ish again?
This isn't meant to be a negative post. Utah won this game and clearly deserved to win this game. But this is where players can get thinking they're better than they are. Good defense and playing under control on offense is what won this game tonight. There's no reason to think Utah can't do that again in Pullman, but the wide difference in FT% and the wide difference in turnover margin is something I wouldn't bank on come Mar 5th. I do however expect Utah to show better on the boards (Poeltl should help).
A lot can change from now until then, but I'd be willing to bet it'll be a much closer game in Pullman. Utah HAS to get back to outrebounding it's opponents.
