Let me start by saying I am disappointed. The Oregon and Cal and UW and Colorado losses were all by a touchdown or less and all were within our grasp late and we just couldn't get the yard we needed (Cal), push the WR out of bounds (Oregon), stop the officials from letting a huge punt return happen (UW), or get a stop on 3rd and 1 (CU). We're literally 4 plays from undefeated, but it stings because we could have really used 2 more wins, and two of our losses were to garbage teams (yes, Cal and Oregon are garbage).
With that said, I've seen a lot of posts on this board about Whittingham underachieving vis-a-vis Colorado. The posts look like this: "They recruit worse than us, but they just went 8-1 and could actually finish a season. We have reached our ceiling with Whittingham. He's too conservative, only hires his friends, can't recruit, etc."
So let me point out a couple of flaws in this reasoning. First, here are Utah's recruiting rankings, both National and PAC 12 the past 5 years:
2016: 34 (7)
2015: 41 (8)
2014: 67 (11)
2013: 43 (9)
2012: 29 (7)
That averages out to 8.4, so let's call it 8th. Now here's our finish the past 3 years:
2016: 6th
2015: tied for 3rd (between 3rd and 5th)
2014: tied for 6th (6th or 7th)
That's an average of 5th. So 3 spots better than recruiting rankings would suggest. Either the coaches are good at spotting talent or they're good at developing it.
Now for Colorado. Prior to this year they had won 5 total games and finished dead last in the conference nearly every year (2011 tied for last, 2012 tied for last, 2013 11th, 2014 last and winless, 2015 11th). Do you know why they've gone 8-1 in the conference this year? They have recruited much worse than we have (their 5-year average is 61st in the country and 11th in the conference). They won this year because they sold out the last 5 years to make this happen. They have the following Senior starters who have started multiple years because MacIntyre played young players to get them experience for this year specifically:
LT Shane Callahan (6 starts before this year)
C Alex Kelley (30 starts)
OG Sully Wifels (1 start)
TE Sean Irwin (15 starts)
QB Sefo Liufau (30 starts, beginning his TR FR year)
DE Jordan Carrell (12 starts, JUCO transfer)
DT Josh Tupou (31 starts)
DE Samson Kafovalu (9 starts)
LB Kenneth Olugbode (23 starts)
LB Jimmie Gilbert (13 starts)
CB Chidobe Awuzie (29 starts)
SS Tedric Thompson (25 starts)
CB Ahkello Witherspoon (9 starts)
Plus the following Juniors, most of whom have started since they were Freshmen:
WR Shay Fields (20 starts)
WR Devin Ross (7 starts)
OT Jeremy Irwin (11 starts)
OG Jonathan Huckins (10 starts)
OT Sam Kronshage (6 starts)
TE George Frazier (5 starts)
RB Phil Lindsay (6 starts)
DE Leo Jackson (18 starts)
DE Timothy Coleman (2 starts)
LB Addison Gillam (12 starts)
That's 23 Seniors or Juniors with prior starting experience, and 15 of whom have started at least 9 games. There are 13 Senior starters on that list, all of whom played most of this year, and none of whom are out for the season.
Compare that with Utah:
Brian Allen (CB) 10 starts
Isaac Asiata (OL) 30 starts
Cory Butler-Byrd (WR) 2 starts at WR, missed several games this year
JJ Dielman (OL) 26 starts, lost for the season against Cal
Hunter Dimick (DE) 20 starts
Siale Fakailoatonga (TE) 7 starts, lost for the season both in 2015 and 2016
Kylie Fitts (DE) 11 starts, lost for the season against BYU
Domo Hatfield (CB) 21 starts, missed several games this year due to injury
Hiva Lutui (OL) 9 starts, lost for the season prior to the year
Tim Patrick (WR) 4 starts, missed several games this year due to injury
Reggie Porter (CB) 11 starts
Pasoni Tasini (DT) 8 starts
Pita Taumoepenu (DE) 4 starts
Sam Tevi (OT) 13 starts, missed several games this year due to injury
Justin Thomas (CB) 22 starts, mostly at nickel (it's hard to decide whether to count NB starts, but I'll count them)
Joe Williams (RB) 2 starts
So that's Allen, Asiata, Dimick, Hatfield, Patrick, Porter, Tevi and Thomas who were available for the CU game who are Seniors with at least 9 prior starting games. 8 players, as opposed to 14 for CU. That's a lot of replacements for CU next year, they'll fall back to near the bottom of the South in a rebuilding year.
Utah, next year, is actually just as senior-heavy next year as we were this year.
QB Williams (13 starts)
OL Bolles (13 starts)
OL Uhatafe (25 starts)
OL Falemka (3 starts)
TE Fakailoatonga (7 starts)
TE Handley (8 starts)
WR Fulks (3 starts)
DT Lotulelei (29 starts)
DT Mokofisi (20 starts)
DE Fitts (13 starts)
LB Luafatasaga (6 starts)
LB Tauteoli (10 starts)
NB Hobbs (2 starts)
FS Godfrey (1 start)
FS Fogal (2 starts)
FS Williams (30 starts)
That's 8 players with at least 9 starts again, just like this year (and Siale and Handley and Luafatasaga are all close) Now we might lose 2 or 3 of these players (Williams, Lotulelei and Bolles) but they might all be back too.
So I'm not expecting this massive drop off that everyone else seems to be. The South might be better next year, but Colorado will be worse and I don't think Arizona, ASU, or UCLA will be dramatically better. Utah can't have another year of injuries like this year (remember, huge important players were out for all of our losses, and most of our games, not even counting the 5 starters we lost for the year early).
Now are there areas for concern? Of course. The passing game is better this year than last year (Williams is hitting about 55% for 2600 yards and 15 TD v. 7 INT, Travis hit about 62% for 2100 and 13 v. 10 INT) but the offense has not looked good by any stretch of the imagination. With that said, this year's offense is better at pretty much everything compared to last year's:
Passing Yards:
2600 this year v. 2300 last year
Rushing Yards:
2500 this year v. 2400 last year
TDs:
39 this year v. 39 last year
Further, last year's team lost all of its passing yards, 80% of its rushing yards, 92% of its rushing TDs, 67% of its receiving TDs, and 67% of its receiving yards. This year's team loses 0% of its passing yards, 47% of its rushing yards, 38% of its rushing TDs, 52% of its receiving yards, and 47% of its receiving TDs. That makes me expect next year's offense to take a step forward. Losing Isaac and our three starting Centers (Lutui, Dielman, and Nowakowski) will suck, but there is a lot of talent coming back on offense next year at every position.
The defense has taken a small step back, especially in the secondary where I was expecting a huge and dominant year. I am very worried about cornerback, but the DL might actually be better next year. Anae looks like he's going to be a monster, Fitts will be back, and if Lotulelei stays that's a monster DL again. Plus we'll have some experienced and talented linebackers in Barton, Tauteoli, and Luafatasaga so we don't have to go 5-1 to field a team (which hurts us on the edge again, as Colorado made clear). I don't actually expect M. Williams back, but if he comes back then we'll have the best safety tandem in the conference, and just need two young corners to step up and for Hobbs to improve his game a little bit.
So the future is not as bad as we have been acting like it is, and I don't want to see any more posts that next year's team will be worse. Worry about losses at corner and losing Williams and Lotulelei and Bolles early if you want, but next year's team looks like it should be as good as any of the past 3 years. If we can cut the injuries from 25 players to like 10 players we could have a great year.
And on that note, does anyone think we don't beat Cal with Fitts and Dielman playing the entire game? Same with Oregon if Tauteoli plays? Or Colorado with Fitts, Dielman, Tauteoli? I understand we're upset, but there's a reason players are starters, and the backups are the backups. Having to field a team when you've lost 25 players for some period of time is difficult. To keep that team ranked (as we are in the coaches poll and might be in the CFP) is a credit to our coaches.
With that said, I've seen a lot of posts on this board about Whittingham underachieving vis-a-vis Colorado. The posts look like this: "They recruit worse than us, but they just went 8-1 and could actually finish a season. We have reached our ceiling with Whittingham. He's too conservative, only hires his friends, can't recruit, etc."
So let me point out a couple of flaws in this reasoning. First, here are Utah's recruiting rankings, both National and PAC 12 the past 5 years:
2016: 34 (7)
2015: 41 (8)
2014: 67 (11)
2013: 43 (9)
2012: 29 (7)
That averages out to 8.4, so let's call it 8th. Now here's our finish the past 3 years:
2016: 6th
2015: tied for 3rd (between 3rd and 5th)
2014: tied for 6th (6th or 7th)
That's an average of 5th. So 3 spots better than recruiting rankings would suggest. Either the coaches are good at spotting talent or they're good at developing it.
Now for Colorado. Prior to this year they had won 5 total games and finished dead last in the conference nearly every year (2011 tied for last, 2012 tied for last, 2013 11th, 2014 last and winless, 2015 11th). Do you know why they've gone 8-1 in the conference this year? They have recruited much worse than we have (their 5-year average is 61st in the country and 11th in the conference). They won this year because they sold out the last 5 years to make this happen. They have the following Senior starters who have started multiple years because MacIntyre played young players to get them experience for this year specifically:
LT Shane Callahan (6 starts before this year)
C Alex Kelley (30 starts)
OG Sully Wifels (1 start)
TE Sean Irwin (15 starts)
QB Sefo Liufau (30 starts, beginning his TR FR year)
DE Jordan Carrell (12 starts, JUCO transfer)
DT Josh Tupou (31 starts)
DE Samson Kafovalu (9 starts)
LB Kenneth Olugbode (23 starts)
LB Jimmie Gilbert (13 starts)
CB Chidobe Awuzie (29 starts)
SS Tedric Thompson (25 starts)
CB Ahkello Witherspoon (9 starts)
Plus the following Juniors, most of whom have started since they were Freshmen:
WR Shay Fields (20 starts)
WR Devin Ross (7 starts)
OT Jeremy Irwin (11 starts)
OG Jonathan Huckins (10 starts)
OT Sam Kronshage (6 starts)
TE George Frazier (5 starts)
RB Phil Lindsay (6 starts)
DE Leo Jackson (18 starts)
DE Timothy Coleman (2 starts)
LB Addison Gillam (12 starts)
That's 23 Seniors or Juniors with prior starting experience, and 15 of whom have started at least 9 games. There are 13 Senior starters on that list, all of whom played most of this year, and none of whom are out for the season.
Compare that with Utah:
Brian Allen (CB) 10 starts
Isaac Asiata (OL) 30 starts
Cory Butler-Byrd (WR) 2 starts at WR, missed several games this year
JJ Dielman (OL) 26 starts, lost for the season against Cal
Hunter Dimick (DE) 20 starts
Siale Fakailoatonga (TE) 7 starts, lost for the season both in 2015 and 2016
Kylie Fitts (DE) 11 starts, lost for the season against BYU
Domo Hatfield (CB) 21 starts, missed several games this year due to injury
Hiva Lutui (OL) 9 starts, lost for the season prior to the year
Tim Patrick (WR) 4 starts, missed several games this year due to injury
Reggie Porter (CB) 11 starts
Pasoni Tasini (DT) 8 starts
Pita Taumoepenu (DE) 4 starts
Sam Tevi (OT) 13 starts, missed several games this year due to injury
Justin Thomas (CB) 22 starts, mostly at nickel (it's hard to decide whether to count NB starts, but I'll count them)
Joe Williams (RB) 2 starts
So that's Allen, Asiata, Dimick, Hatfield, Patrick, Porter, Tevi and Thomas who were available for the CU game who are Seniors with at least 9 prior starting games. 8 players, as opposed to 14 for CU. That's a lot of replacements for CU next year, they'll fall back to near the bottom of the South in a rebuilding year.
Utah, next year, is actually just as senior-heavy next year as we were this year.
QB Williams (13 starts)
OL Bolles (13 starts)
OL Uhatafe (25 starts)
OL Falemka (3 starts)
TE Fakailoatonga (7 starts)
TE Handley (8 starts)
WR Fulks (3 starts)
DT Lotulelei (29 starts)
DT Mokofisi (20 starts)
DE Fitts (13 starts)
LB Luafatasaga (6 starts)
LB Tauteoli (10 starts)
NB Hobbs (2 starts)
FS Godfrey (1 start)
FS Fogal (2 starts)
FS Williams (30 starts)
That's 8 players with at least 9 starts again, just like this year (and Siale and Handley and Luafatasaga are all close) Now we might lose 2 or 3 of these players (Williams, Lotulelei and Bolles) but they might all be back too.
So I'm not expecting this massive drop off that everyone else seems to be. The South might be better next year, but Colorado will be worse and I don't think Arizona, ASU, or UCLA will be dramatically better. Utah can't have another year of injuries like this year (remember, huge important players were out for all of our losses, and most of our games, not even counting the 5 starters we lost for the year early).
Now are there areas for concern? Of course. The passing game is better this year than last year (Williams is hitting about 55% for 2600 yards and 15 TD v. 7 INT, Travis hit about 62% for 2100 and 13 v. 10 INT) but the offense has not looked good by any stretch of the imagination. With that said, this year's offense is better at pretty much everything compared to last year's:
Passing Yards:
2600 this year v. 2300 last year
Rushing Yards:
2500 this year v. 2400 last year
TDs:
39 this year v. 39 last year
Further, last year's team lost all of its passing yards, 80% of its rushing yards, 92% of its rushing TDs, 67% of its receiving TDs, and 67% of its receiving yards. This year's team loses 0% of its passing yards, 47% of its rushing yards, 38% of its rushing TDs, 52% of its receiving yards, and 47% of its receiving TDs. That makes me expect next year's offense to take a step forward. Losing Isaac and our three starting Centers (Lutui, Dielman, and Nowakowski) will suck, but there is a lot of talent coming back on offense next year at every position.
The defense has taken a small step back, especially in the secondary where I was expecting a huge and dominant year. I am very worried about cornerback, but the DL might actually be better next year. Anae looks like he's going to be a monster, Fitts will be back, and if Lotulelei stays that's a monster DL again. Plus we'll have some experienced and talented linebackers in Barton, Tauteoli, and Luafatasaga so we don't have to go 5-1 to field a team (which hurts us on the edge again, as Colorado made clear). I don't actually expect M. Williams back, but if he comes back then we'll have the best safety tandem in the conference, and just need two young corners to step up and for Hobbs to improve his game a little bit.
So the future is not as bad as we have been acting like it is, and I don't want to see any more posts that next year's team will be worse. Worry about losses at corner and losing Williams and Lotulelei and Bolles early if you want, but next year's team looks like it should be as good as any of the past 3 years. If we can cut the injuries from 25 players to like 10 players we could have a great year.
And on that note, does anyone think we don't beat Cal with Fitts and Dielman playing the entire game? Same with Oregon if Tauteoli plays? Or Colorado with Fitts, Dielman, Tauteoli? I understand we're upset, but there's a reason players are starters, and the backups are the backups. Having to field a team when you've lost 25 players for some period of time is difficult. To keep that team ranked (as we are in the coaches poll and might be in the CFP) is a credit to our coaches.
