Man, I've never seen this board so . . . boring and downtrodden.
Are you still crying in your Cheerios dealing with the Cal hangover?
Are you afraid that if you look forward that it'll cause another lineman to get injured?
Before you go to sleep at night, do you look under the bed and in the closet to make sure Rich Rodriguez is not hiding there?
Well, if you answered yes, or maybe, to any of these questions, cheer up: I like the Utes to snap the Rich Rod streak this week and you should too.
In brief, the best game plan that has been devised against the Wildcats in 2016 came courtesy of our “friends” down south. That’s right, those guys in blue. This year’s Utah squad is more than capable of taking that “blueprint” and running with it.
Here’s my takeaways from looking at the stats:
Are you still crying in your Cheerios dealing with the Cal hangover?
Are you afraid that if you look forward that it'll cause another lineman to get injured?
Before you go to sleep at night, do you look under the bed and in the closet to make sure Rich Rodriguez is not hiding there?
Well, if you answered yes, or maybe, to any of these questions, cheer up: I like the Utes to snap the Rich Rod streak this week and you should too.
In brief, the best game plan that has been devised against the Wildcats in 2016 came courtesy of our “friends” down south. That’s right, those guys in blue. This year’s Utah squad is more than capable of taking that “blueprint” and running with it.
Here’s my takeaways from looking at the stats:
- Strength on strength: run the ball, possess the ball, stop the run
- Learn from the past, but don’t fear it. This is a new Utah team
- No Anu is a good thing.
Strength on strength: running the ball and containing the run
Arizona’s strength is offense, and particularly run offense. Even though UofA is having a bit of down year, they continue to run well, currently having the 18th best rush offense. They reel off an impressive 5.77 yards per carry (ypc). In contrast, Utah is 64th in rushing and averages 4.01 ypc, which is well below the national average of 4.5 ypc.
Arizona has run well against their opponents and they absolutely gashed Washington. Arizona’s yards per carry is greater than what each of their opponents allows on average. Arizona gained almost 18% more yards per carry against BYU and Hawaii than those squads normally surrender. UCLA allowed almost 9% more yards per carry. Washington allowed an eye popping 135.6% more yards per carry to Arizona than to their four other opponents. Considering that Washington played Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State and a Stanford team that was in utter disarray, maybe that anomaly in ypc allowed is hinting at the vaunted Husky defense being a tad overrated?
Utah is ranked 27th in rush defense, allowing 117.4 per game. This is not far from the 108.6 yards per game that Utah allowed last season; a mark that led the PAC12 and was sixth best in FBS. However, drilling down, reveals at least one wart: yards per carry allowed. Last year Utah only surrendered 3.3 ypc. This year they’re allowing 4.23. They allowed even FCS Southern Utah 3.63 ypc. On the bright side, Utah has held three of its four FBS opponents to slightly below their seasonal average ypc. The exception of course was USC, which gained 47% more per carry.
Utah’s run defense rank is a byproduct of time of possession. I think this is plain when you consider the uptick in ypc allowed and the fact that Utah is currently 4th in FBS in T.O.P. at 36.33.
T.O.P. is key this week. The TDS kept UofA’s run game in check (26-115, 4.42 ypc) by possessing the football. BYU ran 76 plays from scrimmage to Arizona’s 56. That’s what you want to do: limit Arizona’s plays. Arizona is averaging almost 76 plays from scrimmage against its four other opponents and ran the ball an average of 47 times for nearly 280 yards in those contests. The more plays Arizona gets, the more they’ll be able to run it. The more they run it, the more they can wear down a defense and bust back-breaking runs.
It’s a simple formula, folks. Make Arizona throw the ball. They’re 98th in passing offense and 87th in passing efficiency. You can help out your run defense and make Arizona throw the ball by possessing the ball and moving the chains. BYU demonstrated this.
BYU converted 7 of 15 third downs (46.67%), which is an even better rate than either Washington or UCLA achieved.
Third down conversion is not a Utah strength (66th nationally, 39.7%), but no team is better on 4th down when you consider how many times Utah has gone for it on 4th (9 out 10, good for 6th in FBS).
Learn from the past, but don’t fear it. This is a new Utah team
Without doubt, Utah’s D has had trouble containing Rich Rod’s offense, but the D played well enough last year. Utah had their best run defense game in the Arizona series since Rich Rod came to Tucson. Utah limited Arizona to 34 carries and 158 yards. The prior three games against the Utes, Arizona averaged 50 runs and 306 rush yards. Certainly, last year’s personnel had a lot to do with the improved run-game performance, but the results may also suggest improvement in Utah’s game plan, schematics and execution. They can build off what they did last year.
Offensively, up until Booker coughed up the ball and then got hurt, it appeared Utah had momentum on their side. However, the offense completely stalled in the fourth quarter and both overtimes. A 40-yard FG in the first OT was the only points Utah scored after the third quarter. When you start with the ball at the 25, a 40 yard attempt ain’t getting it done.
With Troy Williams at the helm and (crossing my fingers here) several capable targets at his disposal, plus two move-the-chains runners, I don’t foresee nearly as many double-face-palm-inducing moments from this year’s offense as we have seen in the past couple Arizona games.
If Utah can move the chains, get points when they’re there for the taking and force the non-Anu Solomon QBs to throw, that’s a winner. Not picking the score, but it’ll probably be close.
