This guy analyzed a bunch of games from 2005-ish onward. He essentially took all of the plays in every game and randomized them to determine a percentage likelihood of winning. Link This led to a result of teams that won more or less games than the statistics predicted.
For example, his numbers based upon the plays for the Utes this year show that they should have won 7.2 games, meaning they overachieved by a margin of +1.8 games. This makes some sense considering how close some games were and the small margins between victory and defeat.
Next he compared how coaches had done during this period. Meaning that some coaches could presumably lead teams that overachieved on a consistent basis, which indicates a good coach and vice versa. link
Some of the names you would expect grace the overachieving coaches list. E.g. Having Urban or Les Miles on the sideline was good for an additional 0.65 wins /season. However, Navy's coach was good for 1.22 wins a year (some may be due to the system of course).
Whitt was in the positive category at + 0.26. Dave Christensen was a whopping +0.91. Erickson was -0.34. Bronco is at +0.19.
So Whitt's conservative nature and cautious game management has helped his teams to overachieve by about 1/4 of a game each year.
For example, his numbers based upon the plays for the Utes this year show that they should have won 7.2 games, meaning they overachieved by a margin of +1.8 games. This makes some sense considering how close some games were and the small margins between victory and defeat.
Next he compared how coaches had done during this period. Meaning that some coaches could presumably lead teams that overachieved on a consistent basis, which indicates a good coach and vice versa. link
Some of the names you would expect grace the overachieving coaches list. E.g. Having Urban or Les Miles on the sideline was good for an additional 0.65 wins /season. However, Navy's coach was good for 1.22 wins a year (some may be due to the system of course).
Whitt was in the positive category at + 0.26. Dave Christensen was a whopping +0.91. Erickson was -0.34. Bronco is at +0.19.
So Whitt's conservative nature and cautious game management has helped his teams to overachieve by about 1/4 of a game each year.
