How does the PAC 12 basketball tournament seeding end up?

displacedute · Feb 22, 2018

So I did this analysis last friday:

displacedute said:
Allow me to be the Jazzy here for a second. Yes, technically the Utes now sit in sole possession of 4th place, but the gap between 4 and 9 is one game. In fact, the gap between 2 and 9 is only 2 games, so there's a lot of movement still likely. Oregon, UW, and Stanford are all only .5 games back, so they'd tie us with a win (obviously we have the tiebreaker over all three teams, but it wouldn't take much with 4 games left for any of them to pass us. Here's who everyone still has to play:

1- Arizona. 11-3 @OSU, @Oregon, Stanford, Cal. Arizona is likely to win out and end the year 15-3.
T2- UCLA. 9-5. Oregon, @Utah, @CU, @USC. UCLA probably wins 2 or 3 of the next 4. The USC game probably decides the 2 seed (UCLA has the tiebreaker now, but USC has the easier schedule)
T2- USC. 9-5. OSU, @CU, @Utah, UCLA. USC should easily beat OSU and CU, and then split the Utah/UCLA games.
4- Utah. 8-6. @WSU, UcLa, USC, CU. We could sweep these, but I expect 3-1 is more likely.
T5- Oregon. 7-6. @UCLA, ASU, Arizona, @WSU, @UW. Oregon could easily go 1-4 here. That's a rough schedule, with just WSU to break it up. Oregon has the tiebreaker over UW right now, but lost to Stanford, so if they all end up tied it's tricky. If Oregon loses to UW at the end of the year they'll fall far, even if they're all still tied.
T5- UW. 7-6. CU, @Stanford, @Cal, OSU, Oregon. That's a recipe for 5 wins right there. They probably won't get all five, but 3-2 is probably the worst-case scenario.
T5- Stanford. 7-6. @Cal, UW, WSU, @Arizona, @ASU. That's an easy start to a hard finish. 3-2 is likely.
T8- ASU. 7-7. @Oregon, @OSU, Cal, Stanford. Easily could go 4-0 here. Two very different teams tied for 8th. ASU is good but has struggled, Colorado is bad but has gotten some upsets (including beating both Arizona teams at home and UCLA on the road).
T8- CU. 7-7. @UW, USC, UCLA, @Utah. Could go anywhere between 0-4 and 4-0. Can't predict CU. They beat Arizona, ASU, and UCLA, but also lost to Oregon State and WSU. One thing, they're much better against conference foes at home (6-1) than on the road (1-6). So expect them to beat the SoCal schools but lose to Utah and UW, but don't bet on it.
10- OSU. 5-8. @USC, Arizona, ASU, @UW, @WSU. OSU is bad, recent 2OT win against UW notwithstanding. Expect them to go 1-4, don't be surprised with 0-5.
T12- WSU. 2-11. Utah, @Cal, @Stanford, Oregon, OSU. Technically WSU and Cal are tied for 11th, but they're so bad I demoted them both to tied for 12th. They still play each other in what is likely the battle for last place. WSU has the ability to beat OSU, so they could go 2-3, or (like OSU) 0-5.
T12- Cal. 2-11. Stanford, WSU, UW, @ASU, @Arizona. There's one possible win there, against WSU at home. 1-4 is the best case scenario. If WSU loses to Cal but beats OSU, then the tiebreaker for the 12th spot would be record against top conference teams. Cal's wins would be 1 against WSU, 1 against OSU, and 1 against Stanford. WSU's would be 1 against Cal, 1 against OSU, and one against CU. So basically it would depend on if Stanford finishes ahead of Colorado. If Stanford and CU tie then the next tiebreaker is overall won-loss record, which favors WSU (they're 10-15 v. 8-18 for Cal).

Here's where we stand right now:
1- Arizona (11-3). They didn't have a game last Saturday, so nothing's changed. Still have to play @OSU, @Oregon, Stanford, Cal. I still don't think they lose any of those. 15-3.
2- USC (11-5). They beat OSU and CU since the last post. Currently in sole possession of 2nd place, with UCLA just a half a game behind. Still have two games left, @Utah and UCLA at home.
3- UCLA (10-5). Beat Oregon, still have @Utah, @CU, and @USC left.
4- Utah (9-6). Beat WSU. Have UCLA, USC, and CU, all at home.
T5- UW (8-6). Beat CU. Have @Stanford, @Cal, OSU, Oregon left
T5- Stanford (8-6). Beat @Cal. Have UW, WSU, @Arizona, @ASU left.
T7- ASU (7-7). No games since last time. Still have @Oregon, @OSU, Cal, Stanford.
T7- Oregon (7-7). Lost to UCLA. I predicted 1-4 was possible, they're down one already. Still have ASU, Arizona, @WSU, @UW.
9- CU (7-9). Lost to UW and USC. Still have UCLA and @Utah.
10- OSU (5-9). Lost to USC. Still have Arizona, ASU, @UW, @WSU.
T12- WSU (2-12). Lost to Utah. Still have @Cal (pillow-fight of the season), @Stanford, Oregon, OSU (backup pillowfight of the season)
T12- Cal (2-12). Lost to Stanford. Still have WSU, UW, @ASU, @Arizona.

From top to bottom:
I don't think Arizona loses again. So #1 is set.
I don't think USC wins again, so they'll be 11-7.
I think UCLA wins the rest of their games (including tonight), so they'll be 13-5.
I think Utah goes 2-1, so we'll be 11-7.
Now UW is tricky. They have a fairly easy schedule, with just @Stanford and Oregon to worry about (they'll beat Cal and OSU unless they completely take their eye off the ball). If they win out they'll be 12-6. If the lose 1 they'll be 11-7. If they lose both they'll be 10-8. Let's assume they only lose the road game @Stanford.
Stanford. So I'm assuming they beat UW and WSU. I don't think they'll beat Arizona or ASU on the road. So 10-8.
ASU. I think ASU wins out, but they could lose tonight. I'll assume they don't. 11-7.
Oregon. I think they lose to ASU and Arizona and maybe UW on the road. That puts them at 8-10.
CU. I think they're out of wins. 7-11
OSU. I think OSU beats WSU, but it doesn't really matter. 6-12.
I think Cal beats WSU at home, so they're 3-15.
I think WSU is out of wins, so they're 2-16. If they beat Cal they'll be 3-15 and that puts them at 11th. They could beat OSU too, but that still leaves them at 11th (4-14 v. 5-13).

So here's how that breaks down:
1- Arizona. #1 seed, 1st round bye.
2- UCLA. #2 seed, 1st round bye.
T3- Utah.
T3- UW.
T3- ASU
T3- USC.
7- Stanford.
8- Oregon.
9- CU.
10- OSU
11- Cal
12- WSU

So that's a 4-way tiebreaker for 3rd place. Obviously that's not a guarantee. If Utah wins out we'll be 12-6 and get the #3 seed (UCLA would still have the tiebreaker over us). But if it works out that way, the tiebreakers work like this:

Record against tied teams. Utah is 4-2 (beat USC, UWx2, ASU, lost to ASU and USC). USC is 1-3 (beat Utah, lost to UW, Utah, and ASU). UW is 2-2 (beat ASU and USC, lost to Utahx2). ASU is 2-2 (beat Utah and USC, lost to Utah and UW). So Utah gets the #3 seed. Then the tiebreaker for the #4 seed is record against tied teams (without Utah), which would go to UW (2-0 against ASU and USC). Then the tiebreaker for the #5 seed is head to head, which would go to ASU (beat USC). So if it works out exactly as I predict above, that's Utah with the 3, UW with the 4, ASU with the 5, and USC with the 6.

Now obviously this could change. If UW beats both Stanford and Oregon, they'll be 12-6 and get the #3 on their own. That leaves Utah tied with ASU and USC for the #4. That would give ASU the #4 (they're 2-1 against Utah/USC, we're 2-2 against ASU/USC, USC is 1-2) and us the #5 (we're tied with USC, but we have more wins against UW). If we beat UCLA but lose to USC then we're still 11-7, but USC is 12-6 and UCLA is 12-6, leaving us tied with UW and ASU, and in the #4 (we're 3-1, UW is 1-2, ASU is 1-2).

Anybody think I'm way off base anywhere?

JWunderli1 · Feb 22, 2018